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Topic:  Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)

Topic:  Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
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Ted Thompson
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  Message Not Read  Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/2/2022 7:10:40 PM 

Use this thread to talk about anything game-related. For away games, we'll have a separate travel thread.

Date: November 8th, 2022 7:30 PM

Opponent: Miami (OH)  (4-5, 2-3 MAC)

Site: Yager Stadium

TV/Webcast: ESPN 2

Radio: The Varsity Network App (free) 

Miami (OH) statisticsroster and media guide

Miami (OH) Fan Site: MiamiHawkTalk


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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/2/2022 7:32:57 PM 
Per TeamRankings, Miami has a 0.2% chance of winning the East, so there must be a single obscure, unlikely combination of game outcomes that would send them to the MACC. Essentially, all they are playing for at this point is for bowl eligibility. This is a must win game for Ohio, and I don't see Ohio letting off the gas.

Go Bobcats!


We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak. ― Epictetus

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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/2/2022 8:18:47 PM 
L.C. wrote:
Per TeamRankings, Miami has a 0.2% chance of winning the East, so there must be a single obscure, unlikely combination of game outcomes that would send them to the MACC. Essentially, all they are playing for at this point is for bowl eligibility. This is a must win game for Ohio, and I don't see Ohio letting off the gas.

Go Bobcats!


It is Buffalo losing out and BG beating Ohio and losing their other 3 and Miami winning all three. If Ohio beats BG, loses to Ball St., Buffalo both loses out then I think BG could win tonight as long as they lose the rest and Miami wins out.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/3/2022 2:25:46 PM 
Will the fact that Nowinsky was at Miami last year give Ohio any advantages, since he no doubt has some understanding of their offensive schemes and players? Will it help Miami that they understand his defensive schemes, and know what to expect?


We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak. ― Epictetus

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Trevor Stephens
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/3/2022 3:58:14 PM 
Press Conference:

Miami: https://miamiredhawks.com/news/2022/10/31/football-martin...

Miami Preview: https://miamiredhawks.com/news/2022/11/1/football-redhawk...

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ExCat21
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/3/2022 4:14:17 PM 
Here are the Fiami Leaders nationally

Offense

N/A


Defense

#14 Ryan McWood (LB) 80 tackles

#23 Matt Salopanek (CB) 77 tackles 3 sacks

#58 Michael Dowell (CB) 68 tackles 2 sacks and 1 FF


Special Teams

#9 Grant Nicholson (K) 14-17 FG Long of 49


Fiami offense. I think they will look at Buffalo's film and understand they need to run the ball or design screens and quick throws to get it out of the QBs hands. DEs need to be wary of quick little passes and work on getting hands up on Miami's QBs (who aren't big and tall).

Fiami Defense

The national stats screams "corner-blitzes." These corners are more disruptive than their D-Line. Hopefully we cover Rourke's blind-side. Also, I wouldn't expect man-to-man from them. These will be zone blitzes to disrupt KR7's timing. Digs, drags, slants should all be open. Miami wants us to throw comebacks and long-timing routes so they can give themselves a chance.

Fiami Special Teams

They have a good kicker just like we do. So keeping them outside the 35 yard line would benefit the Cats.


Overall.

Just play the game and not get hyped in the rivalry. Neither team has a dominate run game in late season form like Ball State does. So establishing the run is important this game. We're statistically better than them at everything....we just have to go out and play like it.
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/3/2022 5:46:04 PM 
Victory wrote:
L.C. wrote:
Per TeamRankings, Miami has a 0.2% chance of winning the East, so there must be a single obscure, unlikely combination of game outcomes that would send them to the MACC. Essentially, all they are playing for at this point is for bowl eligibility. This is a must win game for Ohio, and I don't see Ohio letting off the gas.

Go Bobcats!


It is Buffalo losing out and BG beating Ohio and losing their other 3 and Miami winning all three. If Ohio beats BG, loses to Ball St., Buffalo both loses out then I think BG could win tonight as long as they lose the rest and Miami wins out.



There is 10 game parlay path now. They definitely win under the following combination:

They need three games this week. Teamrankings has them all slightly in their favor but even if you believe those percentages the odds of them getting all three and surviving the week are about 16%.
Miami beats Ohio (51.1%)
Central Michigan beats Buffalo (55.1%)
Kent State beats Bowling Green (56.0%)

Next week these are all underdogs:
Miami beats Northern Illinois (42.7%)
Akron beats Buffalo (10.6%)
Ball State beats Ohio (45.2%)
Toledo beats Bowling Green (85.3%)

Final week:
Ohio beats Bowling Green (68.6%)
Miami beats Ball State (61.9%)
Kent State beats Buffalo (39.9%)

But I don't think that's the only path (which according to their own percentages should worse than a 2000+:1 shot and they have it as about a 500:1 shot) because if Kent State also beats EMU (68.9%) then they are tied with Ohio and Miami and I think that means that Buffalo can beat CMU or BG can beat Toledo. Under that scenario there is a 4 way tie and H2H works for Miami. I think that if both Buffalo and BG were to win their West games there would be a 5 way tie where Kent would win on H2H. I am not at all sure about complicated MAC tiebreakers so take that FWIW.


Last Edited: 11/3/2022 5:48:58 PM by Victory

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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/3/2022 5:46:43 PM 

Last Edited: 11/3/2022 5:47:33 PM by Victory

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Campus Flow
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/3/2022 7:31:55 PM 
Ohio doesn't have to worry about the tie-breakers at the moment when they control their own destiny. I don't take BG seriously at all here because its the final game so Ohio can drop Miami or Ball and still maintain destiny over BG if a win and then after that the season is done. This doesn't consider BG could easily drop more games before going into he season finale against Ohio.

The problem with the Buffalo game is while it felt like the MAC East Championship game it locked up nothing with 3 more MAC games to play.


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2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
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ExCat21
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/3/2022 9:06:41 PM 
Miami defense allows 150 yrds per game. Defense passing is 149 per game. Either they faced teams with bad QBs or they haven't faced a top 10 QB.

Time will tell.
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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/3/2022 10:59:01 PM 
ExCat21 wrote:
Here are the Fiami Leaders nationally

Offense

N/A


Defense

#14 Ryan McWood (LB) 80 tackles

#23 Matt Salopanek (CB) 77 tackles 3 sacks

#58 Michael Dowell (CB) 68 tackles 2 sacks and 1 FF


Special Teams

#9 Grant Nicholson (K) 14-17 FG Long of 49


Fiami offense. I think they will look at Buffalo's film and understand they need to run the ball or design screens and quick throws to get it out of the QBs hands. DEs need to be wary of quick little passes and work on getting hands up on Miami's QBs (who aren't big and tall).

Fiami Defense

The national stats screams "corner-blitzes." These corners are more disruptive than their D-Line. Hopefully we cover Rourke's blind-side. Also, I wouldn't expect man-to-man from them. These will be zone blitzes to disrupt KR7's timing. Digs, drags, slants should all be open. Miami wants us to throw comebacks and long-timing routes so they can give themselves a chance.

Fiami Special Teams

They have a good kicker just like we do. So keeping them outside the 35 yard line would benefit the Cats.


Overall.

Just play the game and not get hyped in the rivalry. Neither team has a dominate run game in late season form like Ball State does. So establishing the run is important this game. We're statistically better than them at everything....we just have to go out and play like it.


Thanks for this analysis. I think It's very insightful from one who understands college football from the inside, so to speak.


"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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OhioBobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/4/2022 1:40:19 PM 
Ohio isn't losing this game. Period. Miami simply doesn't have the offense to keep pace with Ohio for an entire game. And while Miami is decent defensively, their defense simply isn't good enough to slow Ohio's offense down enough to make a difference.

Miami was a much better team last year than they are this year (and Ohio wasn't nearly as good as it is this year), and last year vs Ohio they got punched in the mouth (and then some!) and it was 28-0 by the time they knew what the hell even hit them. They were shellshocked and looked clueless and had no answers for Ohio. Yes they responded, but the damaged was already done. Just like what Ohio did to Buffalo last week, OU was up 17-0 before UB even got a first down, and the game was essentially over for the Buffalo at that point. Sure they also tried to respond, but once again, the damage was already done. You're not going to fall behind like that and beat Ohio.

And speaking of damage, the damage to Miami was done this season in their opener when Chuck Martin still had Brett Gabbert in the game down 37-13 in the final minutes at Kentucky and Gabbert got hurt his shoulder. He missed the next 6 games where they basically already fell out of the East race in his absence, then cemented their place away from Detroit when Gabbert returned and they only scored 10 points, at home, to a Western Michigan team that Ohio easily had its way with in Kalamazoo the week before. Gabbert still looked rusty and rather pedestrian last week at Akron as well. They just look like a team just going through the motions with nothing to play for at this point, which in their case, they really don't. While not mathematically eliminated from the MACC, they are for all intents and purposes done from the MACC race, with only a crummy bowl game to dangle on a stick in front of them at this point for whatever motivation they can try and muster up.

In the beginning of the year, this looked like a possible swing game for Ohio. But not any more. This one has win written all over it. Miami has gone from preseason favorite to preseason bust, while Ohio has gone from the team that no one was really talking about to the one no one wants to face and the one no one can beat. Miami has no home field advantage, especially on a weekday evening, and can try and pull out whatever stops they want, Ohio is simply too good and a much better team, and it will be reflected on the scoreboard again when the clock hits zero in Oxford.
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Ted Thompson
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/4/2022 4:28:12 PM 


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Bobcatzblitz
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/5/2022 9:11:15 AM 
Ugh there will be all of 25 Fiami Fans in that otherwise beautiful stadium screaming
"But we Win at Life" a true qoute yelled at us leaving a past Bobcat Beatdown 😆
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Campus Flow
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/5/2022 9:18:54 AM 
OhioBobcat wrote:
Ohio isn't losing this game. Period. Miami simply doesn't have the offense to keep pace with Ohio for an entire game. And while Miami is decent defensively, their defense simply isn't good enough to slow Ohio's offense down enough to make a difference.

Miami was a much better team last year than they are this year (and Ohio wasn't nearly as good as it is this year), and last year vs Ohio they got punched in the mouth (and then some!) and it was 28-0 by the time they knew what the hell even hit them. They were shellshocked and looked clueless and had no answers for Ohio. Yes they responded, but the damaged was already done. Just like what Ohio did to Buffalo last week, OU was up 17-0 before UB even got a first down, and the game was essentially over for the Buffalo at that point. Sure they also tried to respond, but once again, the damage was already done. You're not going to fall behind like that and beat Ohio.

And speaking of damage, the damage to Miami was done this season in their opener when Chuck Martin still had Brett Gabbert in the game down 37-13 in the final minutes at Kentucky and Gabbert got hurt his shoulder. He missed the next 6 games where they basically already fell out of the East race in his absence, then cemented their place away from Detroit when Gabbert returned and they only scored 10 points, at home, to a Western Michigan team that Ohio easily had its way with in Kalamazoo the week before. Gabbert still looked rusty and rather pedestrian last week at Akron as well. They just look like a team just going through the motions with nothing to play for at this point, which in their case, they really don't. While not mathematically eliminated from the MACC, they are for all intents and purposes done from the MACC race, with only a crummy bowl game to dangle on a stick in front of them at this point for whatever motivation they can try and muster up.

In the beginning of the year, this looked like a possible swing game for Ohio. But not any more. This one has win written all over it. Miami has gone from preseason favorite to preseason bust, while Ohio has gone from the team that no one was really talking about to the one no one wants to face and the one no one can beat. Miami has no home field advantage, especially on a weekday evening, and can try and pull out whatever stops they want, Ohio is simply too good and a much better team, and it will be reflected on the scoreboard again when the clock hits zero in Oxford.


I tend to agree with this analysis and I'm surprised Martin is still coaching at Miami after all these years. One point you made is there is still a bowl game for Miami to play for thus the wheels aren't completely off the season. Any bowl game is important to a program because it means extra practices and a national TV appearance.


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Diamond Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/5/2022 9:52:28 AM 
I know we have a solid offense and the D is improving. However, it is a road game against our rival. Albin beats OUr rival after rolling up undefeated Buffalo (4-0) I'll send him a gift card to the College Book Store for a new sideline hat. A collapsible hat with a belt buckle snap is not great gear for a D1 Football Coach.

I'm a hat snob FYI. Fitted, 6 panel, eight seamed lids only. Get a lid from Coach Moore for goodness sake.

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Ted Thompson
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/5/2022 10:12:38 AM 

 


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bobcatsquared
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/5/2022 10:55:59 AM 
Diamond Cat wrote:
Albin beats OUr rival after rolling up undefeated Buffalo (4-0) I'll send him a gift card to the College Book Store for a new sideline hat. A collapsible hat with a belt buckle snap is not great gear for a D1 Football Coach.


Love TA's game-day hat. In fact, on most game days I'm typically wearing my shirt with the same logo that's on TA's hat. But then again, I'm not a hat snob.
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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/6/2022 12:20:09 AM 
Ted Thompson wrote:
For the 1st time as https://twitter.com/OhioFootball?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw's DC, https://twitter.com/coach_nowinsky?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw returns to Oxford to try to stop https://twitter.com/MiamiOHFootball?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw . We visit with the former RedHawk DC to talk about that & all things Bobcat defense. https://t.co/e6HeAsz2r1&mdash ; Russ Eisenstein (@RussEisenstein) https://twitter.com/RussEisenstein/status/158889390524367...


. . . slow bleed defense . . . an interesting concept. This somehow doesn't sound as good as "bend but don't break."


"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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AlumDadDad
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/6/2022 9:02:43 AM 
This game is no gimme. Several good seasons have gone to die in Oxford. Gabbert has had extra time to get ready. OUr front 7 needs to make him intensely uncomfortable. OUr OL needs to keep Rourke clean. If we can do those two things, we'll prevail. Having Bangura in the lineup would be a big help too. Crowd will be a complete non-factor, as the preps can't be bothered to actually show up for a game. An entire thread could be dedicated to that.

Edit: I'd also like to see Bostic get more involved in the short passing game. With his size and strength, he can deal out some punishment on the Fiami secondary. He's like having a big RB running loose.

Last Edited: 11/6/2022 9:24:56 AM by AlumDadDad

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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/6/2022 3:01:40 PM 
We are a 1 point favorite. That's right where I expected.
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BSC 91
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/7/2022 1:04:32 PM 
Diamond Cat wrote:
I know we have a solid offense and the D is improving. However, it is a road game against our rival. Albin beats OUr rival after rolling up undefeated Buffalo (4-0) I'll send him a gift card to the College Book Store for a new sideline hat. A collapsible hat with a belt buckle snap is not great gear for a D1 Football Coach.

I'm a hat snob FYI. Fitted, 6 panel, eight seamed lids only. Get a lid from Coach Moore for goodness sake.



Now I don't feel like I'm the only one who gets picky about stuff like that. The hat Frank usually wore toward the end of his career wasn't what I would pick. First, our athletic gear shouldn't say "Ohio University" when we try (though apparently not hard enough) to get sportscasters to call us "Ohio." And then there's the overall design of that hat. It looked like something someone who couldn't care less about athletics would pick out. Just awful. Don't get me started on Albin's paw logo sweatshirt. What kind of hat does coach Moore wear?

Last Edited: 11/7/2022 1:07:45 PM by BSC 91

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CatsUp
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/7/2022 1:14:20 PM 
Im not a fan of the paw either, at all, but if Albin keeps winning he can tattoo fluorescent paws on his paws if he wants as far as I am concerned. ;)
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OhioBobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/7/2022 2:10:04 PM 
Victory wrote:
We are a 1 point favorite. That's right where I expected.


It's about where I expected Vegas to set the line, but it's not accurate whatsoever in terms of how this game will actually play out. Ohio is a much better team than Miami. Ohio has easily covered 5 straight games (all in the MAC) and yet oddsmakers and betters continue to whiff on identifying how good this team is, which is fine by me because I'm making money hand over fist on Ohio on a weekly basis at this point. Hell, this is the first time since the Akron game that Ohio is even listed a favorite for crying out loud! They've had Ohio a pick or a dog for the last month and Ohio won outright each time, including twice by double digits. And this current line is only a notch over a pick, it way too low. I'm jumping all over that action again. More easy money on Ohio!
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OhioBobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Official Game 10 Thread: Miami (OH)
   Posted: 11/7/2022 2:14:29 PM 
Campus Flow wrote:
Ohio doesn't have to worry about...


Start and end it right there. Ohio is winning the East! Ohio is winning the MACC! Ohio doesn't have to worry about a thing. It just needs to keep doing what its been doing and everything will fall into place and take care of itself. Watch and see.
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