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Topic:  College Footballs Returning Production For FBS Teams In 2023

Topic:  College Footballs Returning Production For FBS Teams In 2023
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M.D.W.S.T
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Member Since: 12/23/2021
Post Count: 1,782

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  Message Not Read  College Footballs Returning Production For FBS Teams In 2023
   Posted: 2/8/2023 11:26:29 AM 
TEAM RET. PROD. OFF. (RK) DEF. (RK)
1) Florida ST: 87% - 80% (12) 94% (2)
2) Kansas: 85% - 91% (1) 80% (10)
3) FAU: 83% - 68% (59) 99% (1)
4) Wyoming: 83% - 82% (7) 84% (4)
5) Michigan: 81% - 84% (4) 78% (16)
6) UConn: 80% - 89% (2) 71% (39)
7) Texas A&M: 80% - 82% (8) 77% (19)
8) Boston Coll: 78% - 78% (17) 79% (13)
9) Missouri: 78% - 77% (25) 80% (9)
10) Temple: 77% - 79% (15) 76% (22)
11) Toledo: 77% - 82% (6) 72% (32)
12) NIU: 77% - 75% (33) 79% (12)

114) Ohio: 52% - 78% (19) 26% (133)

*edit*
(This didn't post as nice as I wrote it, but what it's showing = total % returning 1st, total offense 2nd, total defense 3rd.)

Surprised (slightly alarmed) to see Toledo returning so much from their team last season. As well, as NIU. Both bringing back a lot on both sides of the ball.

OU bringing a lot back on offense and absolutely zilch on defense.

I honestly thought we were returning more offense than that? I must be missing an obvious one, but who are we losing other than Bostic (607 yards) from OU's total 5,901... ? (78% would be 4,600 yards returning)

I hope this isn't how I find out that Sieh transferred.

Figured it was gonna be a slug fest between OU and Toledo again next season, but seeing how much they return makes me a little less confident.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/...

Last Edited: 2/8/2023 11:31:46 AM by M.D.W.S.T
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Kevin Finnegan
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Member Since: 2/4/2005
Location: Rockton, IL
Post Count: 1,085

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  Message Not Read  RE: College Footballs Returning Production For FBS Teams In 2023
   Posted: 2/8/2023 11:39:11 AM 
I think % does not mean % of yards, but % of starters. Thus, offensive linemen, who do not accumulate yards, would still factor into %. Similarly, I don't think the defense is just based on tackles/sacks, but % of starters that will not be returning.
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GoCats105
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Member Since: 1/31/2006
Location: Seattle, WA
Post Count: 6,920

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  Message Not Read  RE: College Footballs Returning Production For FBS Teams In 2023
   Posted: 2/8/2023 3:17:09 PM 
Kevin Finnegan wrote:
I think % does not mean % of yards, but % of starters. Thus, offensive linemen, who do not accumulate yards, would still factor into %. Similarly, I don't think the defense is just based on tackles/sacks, but % of starters that will not be returning.


No the offense is based on yards and snaps.

https://www.on3.com/teams/notre-dame-fighting-irish/news/... /

"Connelly’s exact formula changes by year, but has the same overall concept. On offense, he tracks the percentage of returning wide receiver or tight end receiving yards, quarterback passing yards, offensive line snaps and running back rushing yards and assigns a weight to each of them.

This year’s weights, according to Connelly:

• Quarterback passing yards: 23 percent

• Running back rushing yards: 6 percent

• Receiver/tight end yards: 24 percent of the overall number

• Returning OL snaps: 47 percent

Those weights are influenced by prior years’ data and what positions proved to be the most important returners (or created the biggest holes by having fewer returners), not numbers Connelly randomly decides himself."

Last Edited: 2/8/2023 3:17:26 PM by GoCats105
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L.C.
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Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,067

Status: Offline
  Message Not Read  RE: College Footballs Returning Production For FBS Teams In 2023
   Posted: 2/8/2023 6:49:51 PM 
GoCats105 wrote:
Kevin Finnegan wrote:
I think % does not mean % of yards, but % of starters. Thus, offensive linemen, who do not accumulate yards, would still factor into %. Similarly, I don't think the defense is just based on tackles/sacks, but % of starters that will not be returning.


No the offense is based on yards and snaps.

https://www.on3.com/teams/notre-dame-fighting-irish/news/... /

"Connelly’s exact formula changes by year, but has the same overall concept. On offense, he tracks the percentage of returning wide receiver or tight end receiving yards, quarterback passing yards, offensive line snaps and running back rushing yards and assigns a weight to each of them.

This year’s weights, according to Connelly:

• Quarterback passing yards: 23 percent

• Running back rushing yards: 6 percent

• Receiver/tight end yards: 24 percent of the overall number

• Returning OL snaps: 47 percent

Those weights are influenced by prior years’ data and what positions proved to be the most important returners (or created the biggest holes by having fewer returners), not numbers Connelly randomly decides himself."

So the unexplained piece missing from offense is Meservy.

The lack of defense returning was why my early forecast was for Ohio to go 6-6 this year. With Covid years, more defenders will be back than I expected, so at some point I will revise that upwards a bit.

Last Edited: 2/8/2023 6:50:29 PM by L.C.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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