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Topic: RE: Game-by-game predictions

Topic: RE: Game-by-game predictions

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Alan Swank
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Member Since: 12/11/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 7,198

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RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 9/9/2022 11:30:36 AM

Missed the first game while in Europe so this is an 11 game prediction:

Sept. 10 at Penn State L
Sept. 17 at Iowa State L
Sept. 24 FORDHAM W
Oct. 1 at Kent State L
Oct. 8 AKRON W
Oct. 15 at Western Michigan L
Oct. 22 NORTHERN ILLINOIS L
Oct. 29 BYE
Nov. 1 BUFFALO W
Nov. 8 at Miami L
Nov. 15 at Ball State W
Nov. 22 BOWLING GREEN W

6-6

L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,484

Status: Offline

RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 9/12/2022 5:25:47 PM

For a continually updated projection, there is always Team Rankings:
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/team/ohio-b...

Based on performance so far, Ohio looks to be a better than average MAC team, but has their three tough road games, including both their key MAC East foes, WMU, Miami, and Kent. Thus, the current projections are:
Wins: 6.4
Bowl Eligible Chance: 69.7%
Chance of winning MAC East: 23%
Chance of being MACC: 6.9%

These numbers will change weekly. FWIW, ESPN thinks enough of them that they use their numbers for their game projections.

-After Iowa State:
Wins: 6.0
Bowl Eligible Chance: 56.1%
Chance of winning MAC East: 12.3%
Chance of being MACC: 3.9%
Favored to beat Akron, Fordham, Buffalo, BG, and maybe one of Ball State or NIU.

After Fordham, Ohio continues to drop in wins, and in odds of winning the East and MACC:
Wins: 5.6
Bowl Eligible Chance: 52.1%
Chance of winning MAC East: 6.9%
Chance of being MACC: 1.9%
Favored to beat Akron and BG, and maybe 2 of Ball State, Buffalo, WMU and NIU.

After Kent, Ohio continues to drop:
Wins: 5.3
Bowl Eligible Chance: 45.1%
Chance of winning MAC East: 3.5%
Chance of being MACC: 1.0%

The win over Akron, plus a few other things, such as WMU's loss, gave Ohio a bounce:
Wins: 5.7
Bowl Eligible Chance: 55.2%
Chance of winning MAC East 6.8%
Chance of being MACC: 1.8%
To make it to 6-6, Ohio needs to beat BG, beat either NIU or WMU, and win one of the other games (Miami, Ball St, Buffalo).

After WMU, Ohio continues to rise:
Wins: 6.5
Bowl Eligible Chance: 78.6%
Chance of winning MAC East: 15.4%
Chance of being MACC: 3.8%
Chance of winning the MACC, if they get there: 24.7%

Not surprisingly, Ohio moves up again after NIU:
Wins: 7.1 (Highest yet)
Bowl Eligible Chance: 93.2% (highest yet)
Chance of winning MAC East: 18.4%
Chance of being MACC: 5.6%
Chance of winning the MACC, if they get there: 30.4%

The win over Buffalo made Ohio jump again:
Wins: 7.7 (Highest yet)
Bowl Eligible Chance: 100.0% (highest yet)
Chance of winning MAC East: 51.6% (highest yet)
Chance of being MACC: 17.8% (highest yet)
Chance of winning the MACC, if they get there: 34.5%

After the win over Miami:
Wins: 8.3 (Highest yet)
Bowl Eligible Chance: 100.0%
Chance of winning MAC East: 70.1% (highest yet)
Chance of being MACC: 25.6% (highest yet)
Chance of winning the MACC game, if they get there: 36.5%

The losses by BG and Buffalo further improved Ohio's chances:
Wins: 8.4 (Highest yet)
Bowl Eligible Chance: 100.0%
Chance of winning MAC East: 89.5% (highest yet)
Chance of being MACC: 31.0% (highest yet)
Chance of winning the MACC game, if they get there: 34.6% (slight drop)

Last Edited: 11/10/2022 8:26:07 AM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Victory
General User

Member Since: 3/10/2012
Post Count: 2,281

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RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 9/12/2022 7:42:49 PM

L.C. wrote:

Akron, Buffalo, and Bowling Green look like they might be awful. Bowl eligibility can come by beating Fordham, those three, and finding one more win. It looks plausible. It isn't that Ohio is good. The MAC East is just that bad. It looks even worse than last year. Fordham is far from a guaranteed win.

MonroeClassmate
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Member Since: 8/31/2010
Post Count: 2,157

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RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 10/2/2022 10:27:21 AM

Looking at Power Ratings after 5 games, remaining on the schedule MAC teams with higher ratings are Bulls and RedChickens. Considering RedChicken is without their 4 year star QB and OHIO has shown the ability to move the ball and score losing only one more game in a lousy league is entirely possible.

One game at a time: Zips fans say their team has a lousy secondary so the OHIO receivers light them up on Saturday and conversely the OHIO secondary does enough to stop an inconsistent Zips offense to win on Homecoming Saturday in Athens.

OhioCatFan
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 14,670

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RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 10/2/2022 12:31:02 PM

MonroeClassmate wrote:

I hope so, but I've been disappointed on Homecoming many times when I thought we'd picked an easy to beat opponent.

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

Doc Bobcat
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
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RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 10/8/2022 4:25:44 PM

OhioCatFan wrote:

MonroeClassmate wrote:

I hope so, but I've been disappointed on Homecoming many times when I thought we'd picked an easy to beat opponent.

You can rest easy my friend.

OhioCatFan
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 14,670

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RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 10/8/2022 6:17:24 PM

Doc Bobcat wrote:

OhioCatFan wrote:

MonroeClassmate wrote:

I hope so, but I've been disappointed on Homecoming many times when I thought we'd picked an easy to beat opponent.

You can rest easy my friend.

Yes, I feel better now. Always good to win at Homecoming!

L.C.
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Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,484

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RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 10/9/2022 1:37:02 PM

Victory wrote:

...Akron, Buffalo, and Bowling Green look like they might be awful. Bowl eligibility can come by beating Fordham, those three, and finding one more win. It looks plausible. It isn't that Ohio is good. The MAC East is just that bad. It looks even worse than last year. Fordham is far from a guaranteed win.

And, showing how quickly things can change in the MAC, Buffalo is now the favorite to win the MAC East. Ohio gets Buffalo in Athens, and could disrupt that, hopefully.

Last Edited: 10/9/2022 1:38:10 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Andrew Ruck
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Member Since: 12/22/2004
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 5,181

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RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 10/10/2022 9:41:54 AM

GoCats105 & I (identical picks) remain perfect. Hope we start being wrong though because we project a 5 game losing streak beginning.

If I were to addendum my picks, I think we will steal 1 of those 5 and end up 5-7....but really hoping we can make 6-6.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

OhioBobcat
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Member Since: 1/20/2006
Post Count: 1,619

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RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 10/12/2022 12:42:28 PM

Ohio's remaining schedule:

Oct. 15 at Western Michigan W
Oct. 22 NORTHERN ILLINOIS W
Oct. 29 BYE
Nov. 1 BUFFALO W
Nov. 8 at Miami W
Nov. 15 at Ball State W
Nov. 22 BOWLING GREEN W

WMU - doesn't have the offense to keep pace with Ohio whatsoever. Win
NIU - is dreadful this year, already dead in the MAC West and lost their QB. Win
UB - can't win in Athens. If the game was in Buffalo I might say an L. But it's not. Win
Miami - if Gabbert wasn't injured, I might say an L. But he is. Win
Ball State - will have come back to reality by then. Win
BG - is still bad. Easy win.

See you in Detroit!

Last Edited: 10/12/2022 1:11:32 PM by OhioBobcat

OhioCatFan
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 14,670

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RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 10/12/2022 2:45:33 PM

OhioBobcat wrote:

Boy, Nostradamus, I really hope you are right! Go OHIO!

P.S. If we make it to Detroit, let's meet up, I'll buy you a beer!

BillyTheCat
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Member Since: 10/6/2012
Post Count: 10,332

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RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 10/12/2022 7:36:14 PM

OhioBobcat wrote:

If Northern gets their QB back, that will be an uphill battle, and probably the toughest game left.

OhioBobcat
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RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 10/15/2022 8:43:52 PM

BillyTheCat wrote:

OhioBobcat wrote:

If Northern gets their QB back, that will be an uphill battle, and probably the toughest game left.

Lombardi played today, but he was nowhere near fully healthy. He had a relatively decent stat line but he was laboring out there at times. He's at his best when he can also run and he didn't (can't) do that right now. It also sounds like Hampton, the backup QB who has been playing in Lombardi's absence, is now likely out for the year with an injury from last week. So it looks like NIU is going to nurse their QB's to the finish line.

Victory
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Member Since: 3/10/2012
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RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 10/15/2022 9:47:34 PM

OhioBobcat wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

OhioBobcat wrote:

If Northern gets their QB back, that will be an uphill battle, and probably the toughest game left.

They still beat EMU (and EMU probably would have been favored to beat Ohio coming into today) easily. It feels like a step up in play for NIU today even if he wasn't all there. If he is any healthier next week then it feels like this will be a tough one to pull out.

ExCat21
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Member Since: 9/29/2014
Post Count: 1,150

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RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 10/15/2022 10:44:42 PM

OhioBobcat wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

OhioBobcat wrote:

If Northern gets their QB back, that will be an uphill battle, and probably the toughest game left.

I expect NIU to run 80% with a deep ball and slant route here and there. Gotta stop the run first and foremost and make them throw.

100%Cat
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Member Since: 1/17/2013
Post Count: 2,614

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RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 10/17/2022 8:53:18 AM

I keep my expectations of Ohio football fairly low. If you told me, after last season, we would have a winning record this year through 7 games, I'd take it in a heartbeat. We have a pulse, we have seen positive things, we have glimmers of hope. After last year, and the years I endured here when I was a student in the post-Grobe era, I will take it.

Alan Swank
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Member Since: 12/11/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 7,198

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RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 10/17/2022 4:41:48 PM

OhioCatFan wrote:

OhioBobcat wrote:

Boy, Nostradamus, I really hope you are right! Go OHIO!

P.S. If we make it to Detroit, let's meet up, I'll buy you a beer!

OhioBobcat - I'd bring your wallet to that bar in Detroit. Members of the last iteration of the Green and White Club board have been waiting over 6 or 7 years for OCF to buy one of those promised rounds of beer.

OhioCatFan
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Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 14,670

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RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 10/17/2022 6:33:03 PM

Alan Swank wrote:

OhioCatFan wrote:

OhioBobcat wrote:

Boy, Nostradamus, I really hope you are right! Go OHIO!

P.S. If we make it to Detroit, let's meet up, I'll buy you a beer!

Ha-ha . . Just waiting for that Vietnam rice paddy grunt to chime in next! ;-)

oldkatz
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Member Since: 12/22/2004
Post Count: 1,438

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RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 10/18/2022 2:55:31 PM

OhioCatFan wrote:

Alan Swank wrote:

OhioCatFan wrote:

OhioBobcat wrote:

Boy, Nostradamus, I really hope you are right! Go OHIO!

P.S. If we make it to Detroit, let's meet up, I'll buy you a beer!

Ha-ha . . Just waiting for that Vietnam rice paddy grunt to chime in next! ;-)

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=Tab+...

"All my inside sources tell me I have no inside sources." Salvatore "money bucks" Mafiosiano.

OhioCatFan
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 14,670

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RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 10/18/2022 3:30:54 PM

oldkatz wrote:

OhioCatFan wrote:

Alan Swank wrote:

OhioCatFan wrote:

OhioBobcat wrote:

Boy, Nostradamus, I really hope you are right! Go OHIO!

P.S. If we make it to Detroit, let's meet up, I'll buy you a beer!

Ha-ha . . Just waiting for that Vietnam rice paddy grunt to chime in next! ;-)

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=Tab+...

Out did yourself with that one, dogface!

BillyTheCat
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Member Since: 10/6/2012
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RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 10/24/2022 12:47:49 PM

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:

rpbobcat wrote:

MonroeClassmate wrote:

She should also have had interviews with graduating team members for their take on how the staff communicated with the players and how the staff dealt with adversity and success. How the attitudes of the players may have changed from the beginning of the season till the loss to BGSU.

As has been posted here numerous times, JC seems adverse to responding to emails and voice mails.

Communication doesn't seem to be one of her stronger attributes.

So, in my opinion ,the odds of her interviewing graduating team members after last season, seems pretty remote.

I've spent way too much time in my life reading this board, and the percentage of posters whose opinion warrants a response from Julie Cromer seems very, very small to me.

If she replied to every nut job on this board who emailed her, it would be a bad sign about her priorities.

rpbobcat
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Location: Rochelle Park, NJ
Post Count: 3,595

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RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 10/24/2022 2:28:57 PM

BillyTheCat wrote:

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:

rpbobcat wrote:

MonroeClassmate wrote:

These posts go back to 9/1.

What took so long to respond ?

Last Edited: 10/24/2022 2:31:08 PM by rpbobcat

BillyTheCat
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Post Count: 10,332

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RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 10/25/2022 7:13:04 AM

rpbobcat wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:

rpbobcat wrote:

MonroeClassmate wrote:

These posts go back to 9/1.

What took so long to respond ?

I knew it would bother you.

OhioCatFan
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 14,670

Status: Offline

RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 10/25/2022 10:24:16 AM

BillyTheCat wrote:

rpbobcat wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:

rpbobcat wrote:

MonroeClassmate wrote:

These posts go back to 9/1.

What took so long to respond ?

I knew it would bother you.

I think the point was the previous AD did respond to BA nut jobs like rpbobcat and myself. Sometimes his responses shouwed an inability to comprehend our nut-job brilliance, but at least he did respond.

Urban Bobcat
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Member Since: 9/14/2007
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 830

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RE: Game-by-game predictions

Posted: 10/26/2022 1:52:35 PM

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:

rpbobcat wrote:

MonroeClassmate wrote:

Bet she replies to nut jobs that contribute $$$.

URBAN BOBCAT

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