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Topic:  RE: Bowl Projections

Topic:  RE: Bowl Projections
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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 10/19/2022 8:42:49 AM 
OhioCatFan wrote:
Victory wrote:
OhioCatFan wrote:

Very interesting research and analysis. I have one question: Under what circumstances can a team play 13 games now in the regular season, exclusive of conference playoffs? Years ago, for some strange reason, the NCAA allowed a school to play an extra game if they played a game at Hawai'i. Is that still true. I never understood the rationale for that.


When it happens these days it is almost always a result of the Hawaii rule. Most of the "Week 0" games used to help fund charities such as Coaches vs. Cancer but they are just regular games now and you don't get an extra game for playing in them. Interesting is that MWC don't seem to be taking advantage of getting a 13th game as a result of a scheduled conference game every other year lately. As far as I know this rule still applies to conference games as well. But you are at a disadvantage for bowl eligibility with an odd number of games. Maybe MWC teams no longer think that it is worth it. Only WKU is taking advantage. Most of that 0.2 (or about a 1 in 5 chance of a team finishing 6-7) is the possibility of 4-3 WKU taking a step back with a lesser part 2-5 Hawaii who looks pretty unlikely to get to 6-7.

With 12 games 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, and 6 wins make you eligible. Seven different win totals make you eligible while only 6 are ineligible (0 through 5). If you play 13 games there are now 7 ways to be ineligible as well. You'd think that if you need to win half your games to be bowl eligible that only about 65 of the 130 non-transition or probation FBS teams would make it. But given that most FBS teams play an FCS game and win that well over half the time and more than half of all possible records are actually eligible this total will probably be more like 82 eligible teams or somewhere around 63%.


Oh...so the Hawai'i rule is still in effect. Interesting. So what is the rationale for it? Your costs to get to the Rainbow State are so high that you need another "pay game" to pay your expenses?


The "Hawaii Exemption" is a rule enacted by the NCAA that allows Division I football teams that play at Hawaii to schedule a 13th regular-season game. The bylaw also allows the Warriors to play a 13th game each season
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 10/19/2022 12:05:13 PM 
BillyTheCat wrote:
The "Hawaii Exemption" is a rule enacted by the NCAA that allows Division I football teams that play at Hawaii to schedule a 13th regular-season game. The bylaw also allows the Warriors to play a 13th game each season

I always thought the rule applied to any games scheduled outside the continental US, but apparently it only applies to games played in Hawaii, Alaska, or Puerto
Rico. Could two MAC teams agree to play a game normally played in mid-Novemeber in Puerto Rico instead, and then add another money game earlier in the year to cover the costs?

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 10/19/2022 12:09:39 PM 
L.C. wrote:
BillyTheCat wrote:
The "Hawaii Exemption" is a rule enacted by the NCAA that allows Division I football teams that play at Hawaii to schedule a 13th regular-season game. The bylaw also allows the Warriors to play a 13th game each season

I always thought the rule applied to any games scheduled outside the continental US, but apparently it only applies to games played in Hawaii, Alaska, or Puerto
Rico. Could two MAC teams agree to play a game normally played in mid-Novemeber in Puerto Rico instead, and then add another money game earlier in the year to cover the costs?


Yep
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ExCat21
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 10/23/2022 4:42:47 PM 
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl - December 30. Vs San Diego St.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/collegefootballnews.com/2022...

I know this is just a prediction but I would rather play a different opponent if we did go to a bowl game this year.
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 10/23/2022 5:55:53 PM 
Teamrankings gives Ohio an 18.6% chance to win the East. That's up only slightly because Buffalo upset Toledo. They give Ohio a 5.6% chance to win the MAC. Now, Ohio has a 93.2% chance to be bowl eligible. So really that's a 6.8% chance that we might lose four consecutive Tuesdays. That would really stink. Its about the same chance of winning the MAC which would probably, but definitely not with absolute certainly, require winning 5 in a row from here. FPI is more bullish and gives us a 95.3% chance to be eligible.

The sum of teamrankings bowl eligible chances now sum to 81.0. That up a tenth from last week. There are 82 slots available.
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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 10/23/2022 6:30:19 PM 
Victory wrote:
Teamrankings gives Ohio an 18.6% chance to win the East. That's up only slightly because Buffalo upset Toledo. They give Ohio a 5.6% chance to win the MAC. Now, Ohio has a 93.2% chance to be bowl eligible. So really that's a 6.8% chance that we might lose four consecutive Tuesdays. That would really stink. Its about the same chance of winning the MAC which would probably, but definitely not with absolute certainly, require winning 5 in a row from here. FPI is more bullish and gives us a 95.3% chance to be eligible.

The sum of teamrankings bowl eligible chances now sum to 81.0. That up a tenth from last week. There are 82 slots available.



In my experience, in the MAC, its often better to be the team with long odds of winning the conference title than to be the favorite.

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

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Ten Win Tim
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 10/23/2022 7:25:06 PM 
ExCat21 wrote:
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl - December 30. Vs San Diego St.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/collegefootballnews.com/2022...

I know this is just a prediction but I would rather play a different opponent if we did go to a bowl game this year.


If Buffalo wins the MAC I could see them in the Arizona Bowl. Coastal Carolina in Boca Raton would be nice for Ohio.

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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 10/23/2022 8:09:38 PM 
OhioCatFan wrote:
Victory wrote:
Teamrankings gives Ohio an 18.6% chance to win the East. That's up only slightly because Buffalo upset Toledo. They give Ohio a 5.6% chance to win the MAC. Now, Ohio has a 93.2% chance to be bowl eligible. So really that's a 6.8% chance that we might lose four consecutive Tuesdays. That would really stink. Its about the same chance of winning the MAC which would probably, but definitely not with absolute certainly, require winning 5 in a row from here. FPI is more bullish and gives us a 95.3% chance to be eligible.

The sum of teamrankings bowl eligible chances now sum to 81.0. That up a tenth from last week. There are 82 slots available.



In my experience, in the MAC, its often better to be the team with long odds of winning the conference title than to be the favorite.


Warning, this is the analytical me speaking and not the fanboy me. Some might say I'm a downer or a buzzkill. If you think that don't read on.

Well, yes that's often what the odds actually say. I'll go to teamrankigs again and look at their MAC odds.

Toledo 59.0%
Buffalo 26.7%
Ohio 5.6%
Kent 3.6%
EMU 2.2%
WMU 1.1%
Ball St. 1.0%
BGSU 0.6%
NIU 0.1%
CMU 0.1%
Miami 0%
Akron 0%

So, Toledo is still a clear favorite and I'd bet that if you could find MAC Vegas futures they'd still be close to even money on Toledo too. Maybe not quite 59% but probably close. So we look at history and say when there is a clear favorite like that and find it seems like they don't win and a midseason underdog does instead about half the time. Well, that's what the odds are saying. Its just that the underdog that could rise up could be one of a whole bunch of teams. So INDIVIDUALLY your odds of winning, if a credible oddsmaker of the sort that the Vegas billionaires might hire assesses your odds like that, are still where you'd still certainly rather be the favorite even if the favorite will fail in this place half the time. And, yes, teamrankings isn't that expert because it is working only with data alone and not data plus an expert's eyes, but would usually come reasonably close to what those experts would say and I don't know if MAC betting futures actually exist anywhere.

Miami and Kent State played a winner take all game for the division last year. Going in they both had about a 50/50 chance to win the East and the other 4 East teams had zero. The winner instantly jumped from 50% to 100% and the loser dropped from 50% all the way to zero. But most teams are not mathematically eliminated from contention quite like that. Most teams reach a point where they are 3 back with 3 to play or 2 back with 2 to play and in third place and need a bunch of stuff to happen to win the tiebreak. Most teams reach a point where their odds to win the conference are about 100:1 or maybe even 200:1 or worse before they are eliminated. There are probably about 80 FBS teams in that position AT SOME POINT during the season. So I tried to drive this home last year when OUr odds of winning the MAC were put at about 200:1 and a couple of people were pointing out that the had read stories about teams that had come back from odds like that so OUr odds couldn't possibly in reality be as bad as 200:1. But the team who has a comeback story that gets an inspiring sports article written about them is an example of what is called survivorship bias. The 80 or so teams that fail to come back from those odds every year don't have an article written about them how the COULD have inspired us all with an amazing comeback if only they had won their last 4 games and had a whole bunch of other games break their way as well but, alas, they failed. Nobody wrote that article about the 2021 Bobcats or any other team. So just because that inspirational article is written about a team every few years that beat 200:1 odds doesn't mean that their odds were poorly represented or that the 199 teams in that position that failed didn't actually exist.

Now, on a positive note, OUr boys don't need to think about any of this and I personally would put OUr odds of winning the MAC at least a little better than that. I think if most computer systems had conference odds published most would show us a little better than teamrankings does. And Ohio has put themselves in a position where they still control their own destiny with 4 games to play. Even with 4 weeks left I think that its already down to Buffalo, Ohio, and Toledo that are in that position. I don't think most of us expected that they would be in this position when the season started. If they do what they can do and win out they definitely will win the MAC.

Last Edited: 10/23/2022 9:39:39 PM by Victory
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ExCat21
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 10/24/2022 1:00:52 PM 
Campus Flow wrote:
ExCat21 wrote:
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl - December 30. Vs San Diego St.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/collegefootballnews.com/2022...

I know this is just a prediction but I would rather play a different opponent if we did go to a bowl game this year.


If Buffalo wins the MAC I could see them in the Arizona Bowl. Coastal Carolina in Boca Raton would be nice for Ohio.


If Buffalo wins the MAC they may get the BIG10/MAC Bowl in Detroit. Thats why I hope we win. Easier travel to Detroit rather than Tucson.
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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 10/24/2022 5:22:10 PM 
ExCat21 wrote:
Campus Flow wrote:
ExCat21 wrote:
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl - December 30. Vs San Diego St.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/collegefootballnews.com/2022...

I know this is just a prediction but I would rather play a different opponent if we did go to a bowl game this year.


If Buffalo wins the MAC I could see them in the Arizona Bowl. Coastal Carolina in Boca Raton would be nice for Ohio.


If Buffalo wins the MAC they may get the BIG10/MAC Bowl in Detroit. Thats why I hope we win. Easier travel to Detroit rather than Tucson.


Detroit is so much nicer in December than Tucson as well!!!
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 10/30/2022 4:20:57 PM 
The sum of teamrankings bowl eligible chances now sum to 80.9. That's down a tenth from last week and the same as two weeks ago. There are 82 slots available.
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Bobcat110
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 10/30/2022 11:42:04 PM 
The Cure Bowl in Orlando on Dec 16 would be awesome sports trip. Could go down early for the Mens Bball game vs Florida in Tampa on the 14th. Then the Blue Jackets play at Tampa Bay Lightning on the 15th. Then Stay over for the Bengals vs TB Bucs on 18th.

Last Edited: 10/30/2022 11:43:01 PM by Bobcat110
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Trevor Stephens
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 11/2/2022 5:15:17 PM 
MAC Bowl Tie-Ins, Affiliations
The top-ranked MAC champion will be in the mix for the Cotton Bowl if it’s the highest-ranked Group of Five champ – and if it’s not in the College Football Playoff.

The MAC doesn’t have a true pecking order. The bowls matchups are based on best possible games and geography.

– Bahamas Bowl vs Conference USA (Dec 16)
– Camellia Bowl vs American Athletic or Sun Belt (Dec. 27)
– Famous Idaho Potato Bowl vs Mountain West (Dec. 20)
– LendingTree Bowl vs Sun Belt (Dec. 17)
– Barstool Arizona Bowl vs Mountain West (Dec. 30)
– Quick Lane Bowl vs Big Ten (Dec. 26)

To be determined among the Group of Five conferences. MAC will get spots in two of these bowls …

– Cure Bowl vs Group of Five or Army (Dec. 16)
– Myrtle Beach Bowl vs American Athletic or Sun Belt (Dec. 19)
– New Mexico Bowl vs Conference USA (Dec. 17)
– RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl vs Group of Five (Dec. 20)
– Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl vs Group of Five (Dec. 17)

Last Edited: 11/2/2022 5:24:18 PM by Trevor Stephens
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 11/6/2022 1:18:42 PM 
The sum of teamrankings bowl eligible chances now sum to 81.1. That's up two tenths from last week. There are 82 slots available.

Ohio is bowl eligible now. Where this watch is of most concern to Ohio fans is in the event where Ohio has exactly 6 wins. If the MAC fills its quota, and most G5 conferences do, and this number of eligible teams is over 82 there starts be be a chance we stay home at 6-6. We all hope at this point that we end up with more than six wins and start putting any concern to rest.
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Buckeye to Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 11/8/2022 1:50:37 PM 
Victory wrote:
The sum of teamrankings bowl eligible chances now sum to 81.1. That's up two tenths from last week. There are 82 slots available.

Ohio is bowl eligible now. Where this watch is of most concern to Ohio fans is in the event where Ohio has exactly 6 wins. If the MAC fills its quota, and most G5 conferences do, and this number of eligible teams is over 82 there starts be be a chance we stay home at 6-6. We all hope at this point that we end up with more than six wins and start putting any concern to rest.


The other thing is we've been good historically selling tickets in comparison to the rest of the MAC. That tends to help at the end of the day if we're in a 6-6 contest with fellow MAC schools
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colobobcat66
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 11/9/2022 8:00:18 AM 
Victory wrote:
The sum of teamrankings bowl eligible chances now sum to 81.1. That's up two tenths from last week. There are 82 slots available.

Ohio is bowl eligible now. Where this watch is of most concern to Ohio fans is in the event where Ohio has exactly 6 wins. If the MAC fills its quota, and most G5 conferences do, and this number of eligible teams is over 82 there starts be be a chance we stay home at 6-6. We all hope at this point that we end up with more than six wins and start putting any concern to rest.


Concern is officially put to rest.
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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 11/11/2022 12:28:04 AM 
Why is the Lending Tree Bowl no longer played in January? I've been to that bowl twice, and it's much easier to get to for me because of the date. Those that fall around Christmas just don't fit my schedule because of various family gatherings.

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

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ExCat21
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 11/11/2022 9:37:37 AM 
Trevor Stephens wrote:
MAC Bowl Tie-Ins, Affiliations
The top-ranked MAC champion will be in the mix for the Cotton Bowl if it’s the highest-ranked Group of Five champ – and if it’s not in the College Football Playoff.

The MAC doesn’t have a true pecking order. The bowls matchups are based on best possible games and geography.

– Bahamas Bowl vs Conference USA (Dec 16)
– Camellia Bowl vs American Athletic or Sun Belt (Dec. 27)
– Famous Idaho Potato Bowl vs Mountain West (Dec. 20)
– LendingTree Bowl vs Sun Belt (Dec. 17)
– Barstool Arizona Bowl vs Mountain West (Dec. 30)
– Quick Lane Bowl vs Big Ten (Dec. 26)

To be determined among the Group of Five conferences. MAC will get spots in two of these bowls …

– Cure Bowl vs Group of Five or Army (Dec. 16)
– Myrtle Beach Bowl vs American Athletic or Sun Belt (Dec. 19)
– New Mexico Bowl vs Conference USA (Dec. 17)
– RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl vs Group of Five (Dec. 20)
– Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl vs Group of Five (Dec. 17)



Which bowl game would you like to play in and who would you like to play against according to the bowl team agreements?

Back on 08/31/22, I stated we would win MACC and play in Quick Lane Bowl against Maryland.

But for broadcasting, marketing and matchups...I would love to play against App State in Camellia for revenge. I think we lost to them in that same bowl last time.

I think ESPN would just hype our schools as G5s and it would make for good ratings.
App State had some unbelieveable plays to wins games earlier in the season and I could envision the announcers having a lot of talking points about our programs.
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Ten Win Tim
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 11/11/2022 9:45:09 AM 
Arizona Bowl against Boise State. MWC champion vs. MAC champion.

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2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

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ExCat21
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 11/11/2022 10:16:00 AM 
Campus Flow wrote:
Arizona Bowl against Boise State. MWC champion vs. MAC champion.


West coast exposure would be amazing. Especially if we won that game.

Not gonna lie, I want a nasty linebacker from the west coast whose last name is Mua 'Atu Atu or something. Would love to have a Samoan player on the sqaud. Do the heritage dance before the game.
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CatsUp
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 11/11/2022 10:22:16 AM 
ExCat21 wrote:
Campus Flow wrote:
Arizona Bowl against Boise State. MWC champion vs. MAC champion.


West coast exposure would be amazing. Especially if we won that game.

Not gonna lie, I want a nasty linebacker from the west coast whose last name is Mua 'Atu Atu or something. Would love to have a Samoan player on the sqaud. Do the heritage dance before the game.


I can only imagine Miami coming out for a cold day pre-game warmup in the future, in their “intimidating” tee shirts, and we unleashing that guy on them. ;)
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Ten Win Tim
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 11/11/2022 10:22:47 AM 
ExCat21 wrote:
Campus Flow wrote:
Arizona Bowl against Boise State. MWC champion vs. MAC champion.


West coast exposure would be amazing. Especially if we won that game.

Not gonna lie, I want a nasty linebacker from the west coast whose last name is Mua 'Atu Atu or something. Would love to have a Samoan player on the sqaud. Do the heritage dance before the game.


I could see a push for to align Ohio with a conference champion somewhere in a bowl game. MAC Champs and a school record 11 wins is potentially in the cards for Ohio.

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2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

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shabamon
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 11/11/2022 10:54:19 AM 
You're not a true football team unless you have a Pacific islander on the roster.
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M.D.W.S.T
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 11/11/2022 2:15:22 PM 
ExCat21 wrote:
Campus Flow wrote:
ExCat21 wrote:
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl - December 30. Vs San Diego St.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/collegefootballnews.com/2022...

I know this is just a prediction but I would rather play a different opponent if we did go to a bowl game this year.


If Buffalo wins the MAC I could see them in the Arizona Bowl. Coastal Carolina in Boca Raton would be nice for Ohio.


If Buffalo wins the MAC they may get the BIG10/MAC Bowl in Detroit. Thats why I hope we win. Easier travel to Detroit rather than Tucson.


One side note on that Arizona Bowl in Tucson is it's sponsored by Barstool. Which would be huge in publicity for whoever gets to play in it. Those guys push the hell out of their product on every social media channel, every podcast, with every one of their accounts. That combined with their betting angles this would be a pretty widely watched game with a lot of interest - far more than playing in the Bahamas on Tuesday at noon.

https://thearizonabowl.com /

Last Edited: 11/11/2022 2:16:31 PM by M.D.W.S.T
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GoCatsGo
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 11/11/2022 5:21:05 PM 
M.D.W.S.T wrote:
ExCat21 wrote:
Campus Flow wrote:
ExCat21 wrote:
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl - December 30. Vs San Diego St.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/collegefootballnews.com/2022...

I know this is just a prediction but I would rather play a different opponent if we did go to a bowl game this year.


If Buffalo wins the MAC I could see them in the Arizona Bowl. Coastal Carolina in Boca Raton would be nice for Ohio.


If Buffalo wins the MAC they may get the BIG10/MAC Bowl in Detroit. Thats why I hope we win. Easier travel to Detroit rather than Tucson.


One side note on that Arizona Bowl in Tucson is it's sponsored by Barstool. Which would be huge in publicity for whoever gets to play in it. Those guys push the hell out of their product on every social media channel, every podcast, with every one of their accounts. That combined with their betting angles this would be a pretty widely watched game with a lot of interest - far more than playing in the Bahamas on Tuesday at noon.

https://thearizonabowl.com /


Only catch with that, is that I believe the Arizona Bowl is the only bowl not televised on Linear Television, so I'm not sure how many eyeballs would actually be on it.
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