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Topic:  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle

Topic:  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 1/30/2023 5:25:52 PM 
Campus Flow wrote:
350k is an upper tier salary for FCS. The MAC as a rule of thumb pays its coaches about 2x the FCS going rate since it is a higher level and that does afford the MAC a quality coach if they are dipping into the FCS ranks looking for one....

Seven years ago, $350k definitely was an upper tier salary for FCS. I found this old data:
https://www.aseaofred.com/scanning-fcs-coaches-salaries /

My guess is that salaries have risen substantially in the last seven years in FCS, just as they have done in FBS. I can't find recent data, but my guess is that $350k is upper middle FCS now, not upper tier, and that the median is probably closer to $300k now, rather than $200k 7 years ago.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Campus Flow
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 1/30/2023 6:10:30 PM 
L.C. wrote:
Campus Flow wrote:
350k is an upper tier salary for FCS. The MAC as a rule of thumb pays its coaches about 2x the FCS going rate since it is a higher level and that does afford the MAC a quality coach if they are dipping into the FCS ranks looking for one....

Seven years ago, $350k definitely was an upper tier salary for FCS. I found this old data:
https://www.aseaofred.com/scanning-fcs-coaches-salaries /

My guess is that salaries have risen substantially in the last seven years in FCS, just as they have done in FBS. I can't find recent data, but my guess is that $350k is upper middle FCS now, not upper tier, and that the median is probably closer to $300k now, rather than $200k 7 years ago.


That ranks the salaries of playoff participants from 2016. It wasn't that long ago either when you factor the pandemic was in between. The MAC salaries haven't accelerated in that time frame. The median salary for a playoff program was 195k-200k. The median of an average FCS program was likely than 150k-175k. 350k is twice that of 175k.

Any of them are good enough to take the Bobcats to a bowl. High school coaches can be reasonably hit or miss. Then you are talking in some cases converted arm chair quarterbacks. College its a profession and to get a head coaching job a guy has to know what he's doing in almost all cases. That is balanced against coaching graveyards where anyone would fail.


Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

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giacomo
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 1/30/2023 8:40:41 PM 
This thread reminds of something my parents would always say when I thought I should do what everyone else was doing: “ if your friends all jumped off the the top of the Terminal Tower, would you?”. Let’s say you owned a company as large as Ohio University. You are the president/CEO. There are several vice presidents and heads of various departments. Do they make a salary more than you? It makes no sense in our situation where athletics make no money to pay a coach more than the president. Maybe the VP of sales could make more than the owner, but money is being made. Many here had been sleeping through their morning Econ 101 class.
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Ryan Carey
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 1/31/2023 10:59:52 AM 
My econ 101 class talked about free markets and letting that market dictate prices. I'm not seeing many presidents/deans/professors crying about their pay compared to a football coach. Are deans jumping ship and heading to other schools that don't have football because those schools pay them more? Highly doubtful and it seems to me the markets are working properly.

And I'll add, the pay is probably very even if we were to pay these different professions hourly.


Ryan M. Carey
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GoCats105
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 1/31/2023 12:18:39 PM 
Campus Flow wrote:
L.C. wrote:
Campus Flow wrote:
350k is an upper tier salary for FCS. The MAC as a rule of thumb pays its coaches about 2x the FCS going rate since it is a higher level and that does afford the MAC a quality coach if they are dipping into the FCS ranks looking for one....

Seven years ago, $350k definitely was an upper tier salary for FCS. I found this old data:
https://www.aseaofred.com/scanning-fcs-coaches-salaries /

My guess is that salaries have risen substantially in the last seven years in FCS, just as they have done in FBS. I can't find recent data, but my guess is that $350k is upper middle FCS now, not upper tier, and that the median is probably closer to $300k now, rather than $200k 7 years ago.


That ranks the salaries of playoff participants from 2016. It wasn't that long ago either when you factor the pandemic was in between. The MAC salaries haven't accelerated in that time frame. The median salary for a playoff program was 195k-200k. The median of an average FCS program was likely than 150k-175k. 350k is twice that of 175k.

Any of them are good enough to take the Bobcats to a bowl. High school coaches can be reasonably hit or miss. Then you are talking in some cases converted arm chair quarterbacks. College its a profession and to get a head coaching job a guy has to know what he's doing in almost all cases. That is balanced against coaching graveyards where anyone would fail.


This is a report of the 2021 coaches salaries in the Sun Belt. The lowest one on the list was career journeyman Terry Bowden at $430K. And I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but ULM was a trash fire during his tenure there. I'm sorry but the $350K salary just isn't going to cut it at this level for a coach who knows what they're doing. When Coastal Carolina transitioned to the FBS even they realized that paying Jamey Chadwell in the $300 range wasn't enough. They bumped him all the way up to $800K once he started winning in the FBS too.

So you either pay the guy or you keep hiring first year coaches from the FCS for $350K a pop and see if they catch fire, then repeat the cycle? That's probably not sustainable unless you're a really great evaluator of coaching talent and you're not really doing any favors long-term for your program.

https://www.savannahnow.com/story/sports/college/football... /

Last Edited: 1/31/2023 12:24:49 PM by GoCats105

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 1/31/2023 12:34:27 PM 
giacomo wrote:
...Many here had been sleeping through their morning Econ 101 class.

Nope, I didn't sleep through any of my many Economics classes. The problem is that I took Economics a long time ago, and in those days they didn't have classes on things like "The Superiority of Central Planning over Free Market forces.", "Using Central Planning to correctly value salaries for entirely different jobs", "Why paying less never means getting less".

Ryan Carey wrote:
My econ 101 class talked about free markets and letting that market dictate prices. I'm not seeing many presidents/deans/professors crying about their pay compared to a football coach. Are deans jumping ship and heading to other schools that don't have football because those schools pay them more? Highly doubtful and it seems to me the markets are working properly.

And I'll add, the pay is probably very even if we were to pay these different professions hourly.

+1



“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 1/31/2023 12:45:40 PM 
Relevant Factoid: We would never have hired Got Frank if McDavis had not been willing, for the fist time in OHIO history, to hire a coach at salary higher than the president’s.


The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

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giacomo
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 1/31/2023 7:02:57 PM 
L.C. wrote:
giacomo wrote:
...Many here had been sleeping through their morning Econ 101 class.

Nope, I didn't sleep through any of my many Economics classes. The problem is that I took Economics a long time ago, and in those days they didn't have classes on things like "The Superiority of Central Planning over Free Market forces.", "Using Central Planning to correctly value salaries for entirely different jobs", "Why paying less never means getting less".

Ryan Carey wrote:
My econ 101 class talked about free markets and letting that market dictate prices. I'm not seeing many presidents/deans/professors crying about their pay compared to a football coach. Are deans jumping ship and heading to other schools that don't have football because those schools pay them more? Highly doubtful and it seems to me the markets are working properly.

And I'll add, the pay is probably very even if we were to pay these different professions hourly.

+1




Try going to your boss and demand you make more than him/her, especially when you don’t make a profit. Talk about central planning. You must get some school pride to say your Alma mater’s coach makes big coin. Why not give the coach a base of 350k, with incentives if he makes and wins a bowl, wins the MAC, and increases attendance and the program shows a profit. Especially if we go to the Rose Bowl instead of the Swanky’s Bowl. Many of you think all that will happen if we get the right guy and pay a lot of money anyway.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 2/1/2023 12:27:28 PM 
giacomo wrote:
Try going to your boss and demand you make more than him/her, especially when you don’t make a profit. Talk about central planning. You must get some school pride to say your Alma mater’s coach makes big coin. Why not give the coach a base of 350k, with incentives if he makes and wins a bowl, wins the MAC, and increases attendance and the program shows a profit. Especially if we go to the Rose Bowl instead of the Swanky’s Bowl. Many of you think all that will happen if we get the right guy and pay a lot of money anyway.

Look, I get it. You have preconceived notions about what is the proper pay for various professions, and to you, that is "correct", and the free market is wrong, and therefore irrelevant. You probably have opinions on what the relative pay should be for other professions as well, such as teachers, janitors, plumbers, etc. Those opinions and $4 will buy you a cup of coffee.

The odd thing is that you seem to support having the free market set "wages" for players, just not for coaches. I support free market for both. Is it possible that free market wages will fall for coaches as they rise for players? Sure. And if they do, wages for coaches at Ohio should fall as well.

As for individuals, if their free market wage is higher than their boss, they should expect to make more than the boss. If the boss is unwilling to pay a market wage, they should go elsewhere and get paid what they are worth. If the job is that important, and the boss is unwilling to pay a competitive price for someone to do it, the profitability of the company may fall, and the boss may find himself out of a job.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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giacomo
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 2/2/2023 12:07:51 PM 
In a free market, if you spend more than you have coming in the door and don't make a profit, you go out of business. The "market salary" for coaches has no basis in economic reality. It's like you own a company that loses money, yet you pay yourself a big salary. Only your parents are floating you.
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mf279801
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 2/2/2023 11:26:05 PM 
giacomo wrote:
Solich, Frank Head Football Coach N/A FOOTBALL $530,935.00
Boals, Jeffrey Donald Head Men's Basketball Coach N/A MENS BASKETBALL $522,900.00
Nellis, Marvin Duane (M.Duane) President Professor PRESIDENT $415,953.00
Sayrs, Elizabeth P Executive Vice President and Provost Professor PROVOST $321,938.00
Johnson, Kenneth Executive Dean and Chief Medical Affairs Officer Professor EXECUTIVE DEAN $317,551.00
Shaffer, Deborah J Senior Vice President for Finance and Administration, CFO and Treasurer N/A OFFICE OF CFO $294,953.00
Karagosian, Nicolas M (Nico) Vice President for University Advancement and President and CEO of The Ohio University Foundation N/A VP UNIVERSITY ADVANCEMENT $276,791.00
Wei, Mei Dean Professor ENGINEERING DEANS OFFICE $274,500.00
Sherman, Hugh D Dean, College of Business Professor DEAN'S OFFICE $257,056.00
Kopchick, John Joseph Goll Ohio Eminent Scholar Distinguished Professor BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES $255,546.00

This from 2020. A salary range for a coach between 350 and 500k will have them in the top for the university. At our level, the coach should not make more than the president. Spending more will not get you more. It's been proven over time with attendance numbers.


I mean, there are arguably a lot more university presidents available than there are Division 1-calibur football coaches.

Hell, I have a Ph.D. and am capable of pissing off a good portion of the faculty, I'll be the University President (Part Time) for 50k and you won't need to pay me benefits (as I'm going to be part time and keep my day job)
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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 2/3/2023 1:05:36 AM 
mf279801 wrote:
. . . Hell, I have a Ph.D. and am capable of pissing off a good portion of the faculty, I'll be the University President (Part Time) for 50k and you won't need to pay me benefits (as I'm going to be part time and keep my day job)


I also have my union card and am retired with OPERS benefits and Medicare. I can do that part-time gig for $40,000. Let the bidding begin. This is the free marker in action! ;-)


The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 2/3/2023 1:35:37 PM 
L.C. wrote:

Look, I get it. You have preconceived notions about what is the proper pay for various professions, and to you, that is "correct", and the free market is wrong, and therefore irrelevant. You probably have opinions on what the relative pay should be for other professions as well, such as teachers, janitors, plumbers, etc. Those opinions and $4 will buy you a cup of coffee.


I'm not sure it's all that accurate to consider college coaching salaries a free market. They're the freest market within a very restricted market, but any market that involves a huge chunk of the labor going unpaid isn't exactly a free market. Within the weird constraints created by the NCAA and its member institutions, college coaching salaries are probably relatively representative of the free market, yes. But those constraints create a pretty irrational market because there are very few places for that money to go.

That's changing now, and I suspect coaching salaries will change, too. Jason Candle's salary is almost certainly (partially) funded by donors. What happens when those donors start funding NIL collectives, instead?

As you state, it's likely to have an impact. But it seems sort of off-base to insist college coaches exist in a pure free market when the vast majority of the labor in said market didn't gain access earnings until this past year.

Personally, I think the "free market" debate here sort of misses the point. The question, to me, isn't what one needs to pay a coach to keep up with our peer schools. That's a clear answer to me. The question is what do we get out of keeping up with those peer schools in football? Is paying a football coach $1m a good investment for Toledo? The market may demand it, but markets don't require you to participate in them. That's a choice we're making as a University.

Last Edited: 2/3/2023 1:45:50 PM by Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame

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Deciduous Forest Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 2/3/2023 3:03:09 PM 
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:
L.C. wrote:

Look, I get it. You have preconceived notions about what is the proper pay for various professions, and to you, that is "correct", and the free market is wrong, and therefore irrelevant. You probably have opinions on what the relative pay should be for other professions as well, such as teachers, janitors, plumbers, etc. Those opinions and $4 will buy you a cup of coffee.


...but any market that involves a huge chunk of the labor going unpaid isn't exactly a free market.


Nope. Scholarship even to public school clocks in around 25k/year and many places much more. If you don't see the value in that scholarship, then you shouldn't be playing college football anyway.
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Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 2/3/2023 5:11:18 PM 
Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:
L.C. wrote:

Look, I get it. You have preconceived notions about what is the proper pay for various professions, and to you, that is "correct", and the free market is wrong, and therefore irrelevant. You probably have opinions on what the relative pay should be for other professions as well, such as teachers, janitors, plumbers, etc. Those opinions and $4 will buy you a cup of coffee.


...but any market that involves a huge chunk of the labor going unpaid isn't exactly a free market.


Nope. Scholarship even to public school clocks in around 25k/year and many places much more. If you don't see the value in that scholarship, then you shouldn't be playing college football anyway.


What are you saying nope to? I don't follow. You think it's a free market because players get tuition? That cap is the exact thing that led to the Supreme Court ruling the NCAA was violation anti-trust provisions. That is sort of the very definition of an unfree market.

College football salaries come from revenue and donors. Players weren't allowed to be compensated from that pool of money. That doesn't mean they received nothing of value, but it does mean they weren't paid and it certainly wasn't a free market.
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giacomo
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 2/3/2023 7:10:03 PM 
Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:
L.C. wrote:

Look, I get it. You have preconceived notions about what is the proper pay for various professions, and to you, that is "correct", and the free market is wrong, and therefore irrelevant. You probably have opinions on what the relative pay should be for other professions as well, such as teachers, janitors, plumbers, etc. Those opinions and $4 will buy you a cup of coffee.


...but any market that involves a huge chunk of the labor going unpaid isn't exactly a free market.


Nope. Scholarship even to public school clocks in around 25k/year and many places much more. If you don't see the value in that scholarship, then you shouldn't be playing college football anyway.


You own a company where all your employees make 25k and you pull in 8M. That’s a free market.
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giacomo
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 2/3/2023 7:12:07 PM 
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:
L.C. wrote:

Look, I get it. You have preconceived notions about what is the proper pay for various professions, and to you, that is "correct", and the free market is wrong, and therefore irrelevant. You probably have opinions on what the relative pay should be for other professions as well, such as teachers, janitors, plumbers, etc. Those opinions and $4 will buy you a cup of coffee.


I'm not sure it's all that accurate to consider college coaching salaries a free market. They're the freest market within a very restricted market, but any market that involves a huge chunk of the labor going unpaid isn't exactly a free market. Within the weird constraints created by the NCAA and its member institutions, college coaching salaries are probably relatively representative of the free market, yes. But those constraints create a pretty irrational market because there are very few places for that money to go.

That's changing now, and I suspect coaching salaries will change, too. Jason Candle's salary is almost certainly (partially) funded by donors. What happens when those donors start funding NIL collectives, instead?

As you state, it's likely to have an impact. But it seems sort of off-base to insist college coaches exist in a pure free market when the vast majority of the labor in said market didn't gain access earnings until this past year.

Personally, I think the "free market" debate here sort of misses the point. The question, to me, isn't what one needs to pay a coach to keep up with our peer schools. That's a clear answer to me. The question is what do we get out of keeping up with those peer schools in football? Is paying a football coach $1m a good investment for Toledo? The market may demand it, but markets don't require you to participate in them. That's a choice we're making as a University.



At least someone was paying attention in their 8am Econ 101 class and not sleeping off their Cat’s Den evening.

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 2/3/2023 9:38:32 PM 
giacomo wrote:
In a free market, if you spend more than you have coming in the door and don't make a profit, you go out of business. The "market salary" for coaches has no basis in economic reality. It's like you own a company that loses money, yet you pay yourself a big salary. Only your parents are floating you.

You continue to retreat to this inadequate answer and off the mark example, while you ignore the elephant in the room. If you just look at dollars, Ohio loses what, $20m a year on sports? Why do they bother? Do they just like losing money for the fun of it? Or, do they play sports because they feel that a successful sports program benefits the University in other ways? If the only thing that matters is cutting the amount the University spends on sports, slashing all the coaches to half their free market price saves peanuts compared to the very large amounts that could be saved by dropping to Division III, or to club level.

That leaves an obvious question, which you continue to ignore. Why doesn't the University do the obvious thing, and drop football entirely, or at least drop to Division III? There is only one plausible answer, and that is that the University believes that football is operating at a net profit, when it includes other benefits such as attracting students, marketing the University, building closer ties with the town, and building closer ties to alums, who in turn end up making contributions to the general fund. If the University believes it is making a net profit, your whole argument goes out the window.

Once you factor in other benefits, it seems your comparison to a company that loses money is far off the mark. Let's try a different example. Take a company that manufactures products for the space program (at a loss) and related products for consumers (at a profit). Since the division that makes things for the space program operates at a loss, why don't they close the division, or slash the pay below market value for those involved? Maybe they view the participation in the space program as something that raises their prestige in the eyes of consumers, and thus it boosts sales and market prices for it's consumer products, and thus that division is a net positive contributor to the business as a whole, even though it loses money when viewed on it's own?

When it comes to why Ohio has a sports program at all, there are only two possible answers. I opt for the view that they view the sports programs as having additional benefits for the University. It would seem that you view them as simply stupid, yet oddly, you don't seem to favor eliminating sports entirely, nor taking them down to Division III, where there would be very, very significant savings.

As far as the question of whether coaches salaries are currently set by the free market, of course they are. It is also true that the free market for coaches salaries may be distorted by the lack of pay for players. In time the impact of that will work it's way out of the system, and there may be new standards for pay. Whether the free market makes coaches pay go up or down, Ohio should adjust theirs accordingly. If the NFL is any guide, players in the NFL are well paid, but so are coaches. I make no predictions as to what will happen in the future, of than to say that it is possible salaries will change, but it is also possible that they will not.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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giacomo
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 2/3/2023 10:19:31 PM 
Maybe kids matriculate to Ohio State, Alabama and some others because of the football team, but not Ohio University. If they did we would sell out our small stadium with a combination of students and Athens county residents. We don’t. If our coaches are in the top of the salary food chain at the university, and they are, it is enough. Sports are important, and they have a place on campus, just like theater and music. But not at any price and we are foolish to join the arms race. I don’t think we will. This is a keeping up with the Jones mentality that never works.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 2/4/2023 1:08:46 PM 
You continue to claim to believe that attendance is not affected by coaching. The facts tell a different story. Attendance numbers for games in November are impossible to compare to years prior to 2005 because those games are now on weekdays, while before that they were on Saturday, so the only comparisons can be done for games up to October. There are few, if any, attendance stats for Peden prior to 1999. I have attendance at the Utah State game in 1994 as 5940, but I believe that was in very bad weather, and not typical.

In Grobe's final year, attendance averaged 19,978 for games prior to November. That rose in Knorr's first year to 22,190, but then fell sharply and for the last three of his years it averaged 17,030. It rose with the arrival of Solich to 20,065. Off the field issues caused a drop in attendance back to the 17,000 level for 2006-8, but strong performance caused attendance to rise from 19,700 in 2009 to 20,980 in 2010, to 21,925 in 2011 to an average of 23400 between 2012 and 2016. A drop in football attendance nationwide followed that, causing a drop for a few years, but in Albin's first year the average was back to 20,024, and in his second year, 19,514.

So, it appears that there is a bump for a new coach's first year, after which the attendance rises or falls based on results by +/-3000 or so. That can be a difference of 6000 between bad expectations and results, and good expectations and results. A few more years like 2021, and attendance could be back to 17,000. A few more years like last year, and attendance could be back to 23,000. Which will we get? Does it matter?


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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giacomo
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 2/5/2023 1:37:07 PM 
Mere speculation. Here’s a good example of the arms race. Duke still plays its games at Cameron that is 83 years old and seats 9,314, less than the Convo. Based on many comments here, they should be playing in a 40k seat state of the art new arena. Why don’t they? We certainly can limit where the salary range should be based on our situation. I’ll bet if OSU is playing on TV the same time we play at Peden, we struggle to get a decent crowd.
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Alan Swank
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 2/5/2023 6:27:50 PM 
L.C. wrote:
You continue to claim to believe that attendance is not affected by coaching. The facts tell a different story. Attendance numbers for games in November are impossible to compare to years prior to 2005 because those games are now on weekdays, while before that they were on Saturday, so the only comparisons can be done for games up to October. There are few, if any, attendance stats for Peden prior to 1999. I have attendance at the Utah State game in 1994 as 5940, but I believe that was in very bad weather, and not typical.

In Grobe's final year, attendance averaged 19,978 for games prior to November. That rose in Knorr's first year to 22,190, but then fell sharply and for the last three of his years it averaged 17,030. It rose with the arrival of Solich to 20,065. Off the field issues caused a drop in attendance back to the 17,000 level for 2006-8, but strong performance caused attendance to rise from 19,700 in 2009 to 20,980 in 2010, to 21,925 in 2011 to an average of 23400 between 2012 and 2016. A drop in football attendance nationwide followed that, causing a drop for a few years, but in Albin's first year the average was back to 20,024, and in his second year, 19,514.

So, it appears that there is a bump for a new coach's first year, after which the attendance rises or falls based on results by +/-3000 or so. That can be a difference of 6000 between bad expectations and results, and good expectations and results. A few more years like 2021, and attendance could be back to 17,000. A few more years like last year, and attendance could be back to 23,000. Which will we get? Does it matter?



Me thinks you over-simplify the rise and fall of attendance figures. Different ADs counted attendance differently. When we sat near each other for years, Jeff and I had a running attendance guessing game. We got pretty good at it often predicting the reporting number with figures less than 100 off. Then we had an AD change and we couldn't get within thousands of the reported numbers. BTC and I know exactly how many seats are in both the Convo and Peden and to a trained eye, we can pretty much tell you how many folks are in the house. Our average reported football attendance is way off because at least two games a year are lucky to have 8,000 in the house.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 2/5/2023 6:51:54 PM 
Alan Swank wrote:
Me thinks you over-simplify the rise and fall of attendance figures. Different ADs counted attendance differently. When we sat near each other for years, Jeff and I had a running attendance guessing game. We got pretty good at it often predicting the reporting number with figures less than 100 off. Then we had an AD change and we couldn't get within thousands of the reported numbers. BTC and I know exactly how many seats are in both the Convo and Peden and to a trained eye, we can pretty much tell you how many folks are in the house. Our average reported football attendance is way off because at least two games a year are lucky to have 8,000 in the house.

Of course I oversimplified it. There are tons of factors not mentioned, such as weather, for example, or time of day for the game. Still, if you look at the big picture, would you agree that attendance fell between 2000 and 2004, and then rose again? Would you agree that attendance peaked in 2012-16, and that is well below those levels today?


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Campus Flow
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 2/5/2023 9:15:01 PM 
Alan Swank wrote:
L.C. wrote:
You continue to claim to believe that attendance is not affected by coaching. The facts tell a different story. Attendance numbers for games in November are impossible to compare to years prior to 2005 because those games are now on weekdays, while before that they were on Saturday, so the only comparisons can be done for games up to October. There are few, if any, attendance stats for Peden prior to 1999. I have attendance at the Utah State game in 1994 as 5940, but I believe that was in very bad weather, and not typical.

In Grobe's final year, attendance averaged 19,978 for games prior to November. That rose in Knorr's first year to 22,190, but then fell sharply and for the last three of his years it averaged 17,030. It rose with the arrival of Solich to 20,065. Off the field issues caused a drop in attendance back to the 17,000 level for 2006-8, but strong performance caused attendance to rise from 19,700 in 2009 to 20,980 in 2010, to 21,925 in 2011 to an average of 23400 between 2012 and 2016. A drop in football attendance nationwide followed that, causing a drop for a few years, but in Albin's first year the average was back to 20,024, and in his second year, 19,514.

So, it appears that there is a bump for a new coach's first year, after which the attendance rises or falls based on results by +/-3000 or so. That can be a difference of 6000 between bad expectations and results, and good expectations and results. A few more years like 2021, and attendance could be back to 17,000. A few more years like last year, and attendance could be back to 23,000. Which will we get? Does it matter?



Me thinks you over-simplify the rise and fall of attendance figures. Different ADs counted attendance differently. When we sat near each other for years, Jeff and I had a running attendance guessing game. We got pretty good at it often predicting the reporting number with figures less than 100 off. Then we had an AD change and we couldn't get within thousands of the reported numbers. BTC and I know exactly how many seats are in both the Convo and Peden and to a trained eye, we can pretty much tell you how many folks are in the house. Our average reported football attendance is way off because at least two games a year are lucky to have 8,000 in the house.


The number of actual manufactured seats I've counted is 21,600. The mound was supposed to be 24,000 and now I'm seeing 28,000 on Wikipedia as I guess they've reopened the band stand in the endzone for seating.

Given that crowds in Peden can surge well north of 21,600 it would make sense to upgrade the student section with another 4,000 seats, videoboards, concessions. Better egress for safety. Make Peden into one of the more impressive stadiums in the MAC if done right.


Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

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GoCats105
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  Message Not Read  RE: University of Toledo Announces Contract Extension for Head Coach Jason Candle
   Posted: 2/6/2023 10:57:57 AM 
giacomo wrote:
Mere speculation. Here’s a good example of the arms race. Duke still plays its games at Cameron that is 83 years old and seats 9,314, less than the Convo. Based on many comments here, they should be playing in a 40k seat state of the art new arena. Why don’t they? We certainly can limit where the salary range should be based on our situation. I’ll bet if OSU is playing on TV the same time we play at Peden, we struggle to get a decent crowd.


Yeah they should be playing in a bigger arena based on actual numbers and popularity of that program. They could draw 15,000 a night if they so choose. But they have the ability to charge whatever price they want at Cameron, which has become an iconic gym in basketball with an unbelievable home court advantage. Why would they give that up?

Where's the "speculation" you speak of? LC gave you actual numbers. Bad coaching and bad teams lead to lower attendance. It's not rocket science. Nobody wants to go watch a bad team lose. Some random Googling will give you the answers you need.

Oh lookee here, an actual chart of attendance figures dating back to the year 2000 for the University of Florida. Weird, when they were winning national titles under Urban Meyer their attendance was surprisingly high. Huh. Isn't that strange? Then look at their attendance drop as soon as Muschamp and McIlwain start losing.

https://www.reddit.com/r/FloridaGators/comments/wzzsow/av... /

https://i.redd.it/d0js74cjfhk91.png
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