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Topic:  RE: Ohio finds talent…

Topic:  RE: Ohio finds talent…
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Campus Flow
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Alexandria, VA
Post Count: 4,952

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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio finds talent…
   Posted: 1/3/2024 1:28:26 PM 
Guys I played in the NLL which is the top conference in NW Ohio and also scrimaged the farm boy squads of the Western Buckeye League (WBL) regarded a strong football conference with large rural districts. When I did playing in the secondary I was as large as their OL. I outweighed their skill players by 40 pounds (215 vs. 175). NW Ohio is a medicore area for producing D1 college players as a whole. Yes there is more depth than SE Ohio but that isn't saying much. NW Ohio is not analogous to recruiting Chicago or Michigan either its its own place. Toledo and BG happen to be a lot closer to Chicago and Michigan and that Ohio landed a lot more regional recruits this season across the Midwest shows progress to me.

BG did get a lot of the regional MAC players in the past but noticing they have to rely on more local players before means they are digging deeper into the talent pool. Akron I believe is doing the same thing in NE Ohio which has far more overall talent than NW Ohio by a factor of 10x.

I played all the DI/DIIs (the handful NW has) and half of the DIII. Handwritten scouting reports of teams with future Big Ten players (3 that I can recall). Its not the DFW of HS recruiting. Its a half step above SE Ohio and 3 steps down from the talent level of the three Cs.


Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

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colobobcat66
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Member Since: 9/1/2006
Location: Watching the bobcats run outside my window., CO
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio finds talent…
   Posted: 1/3/2024 1:30:59 PM 
I love it, we’re talking about finding talent and the discussion goes to the speed limit on our country roads
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Campus Flow
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Location: Alexandria, VA
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio finds talent…
   Posted: 1/3/2024 1:46:54 PM 
There are Division V schools can punch above their weight and compete with DII programs in football. That is entirely not the same punching above their weight in producing college prospects as if they are a metro Columbus HS. While relavent to consider in HS football scheduling its not relavent in MAC recruiting.


Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

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Campus Flow
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Location: Alexandria, VA
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio finds talent…
   Posted: 1/3/2024 1:54:26 PM 
L.C. wrote:
A lot of the discussion here makes it clear why long term MAC winning records are the way they are. Ohio, in addition to having a disadvantage of less recruits in their natural recruiting area, does also have a recruiting advantage. The school bears the name of the state, which gives it a certain amount of automatic statewide credibility, but that only helps if they are able to leverage it by having a winning tradition. It becomes sort of a chicken-egg situation. If Ohio can win, they can keep credibility, and keep winning, but if they start losing, the credibility can vanish, and regaining it may be a challenge.

In any case, here is the long term winning percentage for MAC teams:
Miami .596
CMU .587
BG .565
Toledo .561
WMU .553
NIU .535
Ball St .509
Ohio .508
Akron .471
EMU .443
Buffalo .425
Kent St .384

As the enlightening discussion from Buckeye to Bobcat and Campus Flow would predict, the top teams are mostly either in the Cincinnati/Dayton/Indianapolis area, or in the NW Ohio/Chicago/Michigan area.


How then do you explain Central Michigan? They are as remote as Athens and HS football isn't large in that region. Clearly they are pulling players across the state and into other states.

Toledo/BG's success is not explained by good local recruiting but good regional location within the MAC. Ohio was at a disadvantage here prior to the internet age and with a lower history of success. FBS has only been 85 scholarships since 1992 also so looking back into the 70s/80s isn't that enlightening.


Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

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Campus Flow
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Alexandria, VA
Post Count: 4,952

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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio finds talent…
   Posted: 1/3/2024 2:19:12 PM 
Team winning percentages from 1994-2023 (past 30 seasons).

https://mcubed.net/ncaaf/ncaafera.py?sorttype=teams&year1...

Toledo 64.7%
Northern IL 52.5%
Western Mich. 51.7%
Ohio 50.6%
Miami 50.1%
Bowling Green 48.6%
Central Mich. 46.4%
Ball State 43.2%
Buffalo 34.8%
Eastern Mich. 33.2%
Akron 33%
Kent State 31.6%

Modern historical average has Ohio above Miami and BG. Buffalo it seems is the one who exceeded its historical performance in recent years.

TA has only averaged 7.67 wins per year in his 3 seasons so his record isn't really that much of a historical outlier compared to what some of the coaches at Buffalo had been doing.


Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

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OUcats82
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Member Since: 1/9/2005
Location: Cincinnati, OH
Post Count: 1,827

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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio finds talent…
   Posted: 1/3/2024 3:48:11 PM 
Campus Flow wrote:
Team winning percentages from 1994-2023 (past 30 seasons).

https://mcubed.net/ncaaf/ncaafera.py?sorttype=teams&year1...

Toledo 64.7%
Northern IL 52.5%
Western Mich. 51.7%
Ohio 50.6%
Miami 50.1%
Bowling Green 48.6%
Central Mich. 46.4%
Ball State 43.2%
Buffalo 34.8%
Eastern Mich. 33.2%
Akron 33%
Kent State 31.6%

Modern historical average has Ohio above Miami and BG. Buffalo it seems is the one who exceeded its historical performance in recent years.

TA has only averaged 7.67 wins per year in his 3 seasons so his record isn't really that much of a historical outlier compared to what some of the coaches at Buffalo had been doing.


Short of the Knorr tenure, Ohio Football has had some good coaching during this time window with Grobe, Solich, and Albin. If you take away the 25 years or so prior the overall history of Ohio Football is pretty respectable. Here's hoping the 70s and 80s are the forever dark ages for Bobcat football.

On the recruitment topic, it does seem like the current coaching staff has their sites in places more outside of Ohio. While it's great to see local kids on the roster, I just want the players who are going to make Ohio successful on the field-whether they are from Blue Ash or British Columbia doesn't matter to me all that much.


Ohio-The State University

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Buckeye to Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio finds talent…
   Posted: 1/3/2024 4:38:17 PM 
colobobcat66 wrote:
I love it, we’re talking about finding talent and the discussion goes to the speed limit on our country roads


We're doing our part to ensure a Sarah McLachlan video isn't made on raising funds for a fellow BA'er's next speeding ticket into Athens......
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Buckeye to Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio finds talent…
   Posted: 1/3/2024 4:40:16 PM 
OUcats82 wrote:
Campus Flow wrote:
Team winning percentages from 1994-2023 (past 30 seasons).

https://mcubed.net/ncaaf/ncaafera.py?sorttype=teams&year1...

Toledo 64.7%
Northern IL 52.5%
Western Mich. 51.7%
Ohio 50.6%
Miami 50.1%
Bowling Green 48.6%
Central Mich. 46.4%
Ball State 43.2%
Buffalo 34.8%
Eastern Mich. 33.2%
Akron 33%
Kent State 31.6%

Modern historical average has Ohio above Miami and BG. Buffalo it seems is the one who exceeded its historical performance in recent years.

TA has only averaged 7.67 wins per year in his 3 seasons so his record isn't really that much of a historical outlier compared to what some of the coaches at Buffalo had been doing.


Short of the Knorr tenure, Ohio Football has had some good coaching during this time window with Grobe, Solich, and Albin. If you take away the 25 years or so prior the overall history of Ohio Football is pretty respectable. Here's hoping the 70s and 80s are the forever dark ages for Bobcat football.

On the recruitment topic, it does seem like the current coaching staff has their sites in places more outside of Ohio. While it's great to see local kids on the roster, I just want the players who are going to make Ohio successful on the field-whether they are from Blue Ash or British Columbia doesn't matter to me all that much.


+1

And that last line is a great line in itself. There are D-1 programs who are built on out-of-state kids or a certain region's kids because of the ties to that area. The fact we have a unique niche on quarterbacks from Canada.....it's no different than St. Mary's in hoops having those ties to Australia. And in a crowded marketplace like Ohio for recruiting, doesn't hurt to go off the beaten path.....
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L.C.
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Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,067

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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio finds talent…
   Posted: 1/3/2024 4:49:46 PM 
OUcats82 wrote:
Short of the Knorr tenure, Ohio Football has had some good coaching during this time window with Grobe, Solich, and Albin. If you take away the 25 years or so prior the overall history of Ohio Football is pretty respectable. Here's hoping the 70s and 80s are the forever dark ages for Bobcat football.....

Exactly. You have to be careful about selection bias when picking dates to compare. Given that we all know what were the good periods and the bad periods, it would be easy for any of us to pick dates that will show Ohio to be good, or dates which show Ohio to be bad.

Picking "30 years" conveniently omits most of the bad years, and picking, say 18 years is even better. Suppose, by "coincidence", I happened to pick 2006-2023. Then the winning percentages are:
Toledo .601
Ohio .596
NIU .589
WMU .523
CMU .511
Ball St .459
Buffalo .454
BG .441
Miami .392
Kent .359
EMU .333
AKron .286

Suppose I instead, "happened" to choose beginning of time to 2005, then you get:
Miami .639
CMU .606
BG .599
WMU .560
Toledo .550
Ball State .523
Akron .512
Ohio .488
EMU .468
Buffalo .416
Kent .391

I could get even more dismal numbers if I picked, say, the 20 years between 1986-2005. If you do this, you have be careful not to conclude too much from it because, in choosing specific dates, you have predetermined the results. I suppose you could use it to compare the coaches of that period to the historical norm for the school, if you wanted to answer the question "was Solich a good coach compared to historical norms at Ohio", but again, in framing the question, and in selecting data periods, we have predetermined the answer we will get.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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M.D.W.S.T
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Member Since: 12/23/2021
Post Count: 1,780

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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio finds talent…
   Posted: 1/3/2024 5:14:52 PM 
Buckeye to Bobcat wrote:


+1

And that last line is a great line in itself. There are D-1 programs who are built on out-of-state kids or a certain region's kids because of the ties to that area. The fact we have a unique niche on quarterbacks from Canada.....it's no different than St. Mary's in hoops having those ties to Australia. And in a crowded marketplace like Ohio for recruiting, doesn't hurt to go off the beaten path.....


I agree though now we have a unique opportunity to maybe catch some of these kids on the rebound?

I'm not saying waste a ton of resources recruiting Grunkenmeyer from Columbus (ESPN Top 100 heading to Penn State) but in a world where we might not normally even make contact... maybe theres an opportunity to establish an initial relationship in the event he transfers in two years and remembers damn I loved Athens, I love the offense they run, etc etc etc

Something like that. Ohio has a deep well of talent that we normally just assume let OSU and Cincy spend the money recruiting them. I hate the portal as much as the next person, but we're gonna have to adapt our recruiting style in a bunch of ways.

Last Edited: 1/3/2024 5:16:10 PM by M.D.W.S.T

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Buckeye to Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio finds talent…
   Posted: 1/3/2024 5:45:18 PM 
L.C. wrote:
OUcats82 wrote:
Short of the Knorr tenure, Ohio Football has had some good coaching during this time window with Grobe, Solich, and Albin. If you take away the 25 years or so prior the overall history of Ohio Football is pretty respectable. Here's hoping the 70s and 80s are the forever dark ages for Bobcat football.....

Exactly. You have to be careful about selection bias when picking dates to compare. Given that we all know what were the good periods and the bad periods, it would be easy for any of us to pick dates that will show Ohio to be good, or dates which show Ohio to be bad.

Picking "30 years" conveniently omits most of the bad years, and picking, say 18 years is even better. Suppose, by "coincidence", I happened to pick 2006-2023. Then the winning percentages are:
Toledo .601
Ohio .596
NIU .589
WMU .523
CMU .511
Ball St .459
Buffalo .454
BG .441
Miami .392
Kent .359
EMU .333
AKron .286

Suppose I instead, "happened" to choose beginning of time to 2005, then you get:
Miami .639
CMU .606
BG .599
WMU .560
Toledo .550
Ball State .523
Akron .512
Ohio .488
EMU .468
Buffalo .416
Kent .391

I could get even more dismal numbers if I picked, say, the 20 years between 1986-2005. If you do this, you have be careful not to conclude too much from it because, in choosing specific dates, you have predetermined the results. I suppose you could use it to compare the coaches of that period to the historical norm for the school, if you wanted to answer the question "was Solich a good coach compared to historical norms at Ohio", but again, in framing the question, and in selecting data periods, we have predetermined the answer we will get.


Not that we have an analytics department here at Bobcat Attack, but would be curious what our recruiting classes looked like 2-4 years prior out to seasons with recruiting Ohio numbers, what was our record, and just other nuggets. May need to hire interns for Bobcat Attack to research said topics.....and also figure out how many miles of Route 33 between Athens and where it meets I-70 in Columbus is below 70mph.....haha
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