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Topic:  Possible Answer to your Questions on Offensive Woes

Topic:  Possible Answer to your Questions on Offensive Woes
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WE LOVE FOOTBALL
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Member Since: 11/21/2023
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  Message Not Read  Possible Answer to your Questions on Offensive Woes
   Posted: 11/21/2023 12:03:57 PM 
Not sure how this has not been brought up on this board yet with all the questions on the regression of the offense this year but the answer, I believe, was revealed during the broadcast for the Buffalo game. They shared that Albin has a "formula for winning" this formula is as follows:

Add - Interceptions, Fumbles Lost, Sacks, Drops & Penalties. Then Divide by - TOTAL OFFENSIVE PLAYS. Albin says if the result is 12% or less = Win 88% of games.
They later shared that the total was 16% for the Buffalo game. I have not checked to see if this reigns true for this season, it would be interesting to see if it does though.

I will leave it up to you all to make your assumptions as to why they have moved to this model but it certainly explains the slow pace and their reluctance to speed things up even when they are struggling. Just wanted to throw this out there to see what you all think and to spread some awareness in case you missed it during the broadcast.

Last Edited: 11/21/2023 12:18:58 PM by WE LOVE FOOTBALL
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Doc Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Possible Answer to your Questions on Offensive Woes
   Posted: 11/21/2023 1:41:04 PM 
Welcome We Love.

Interesting info.

I just have ?s.

Who is calling the plays? Smith or Isphording?

Why inability to block when it’s the same O line as last year?

Why only one Ohio recruit this year?

When will The Smiling Skull get their liquor license back?
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J.B.Hoy
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  Message Not Read  RE: Possible Answer to your Questions on Offensive Woes
   Posted: 11/21/2023 1:55:42 PM 
To me this isn't a formula for winning. It is a post-game metric showing why The Bobcats may have won or lost.
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colobobcat66
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  Message Not Read  RE: Possible Answer to your Questions on Offensive Woes
   Posted: 11/21/2023 2:07:04 PM 
WE LOVE FOOTBALL wrote:
Not sure how this has not been brought up on this board yet with all the questions on the regression of the offense this year but the answer, I believe, was revealed during the broadcast for the Buffalo game. They shared that Albin has a "formula for winning" this formula is as follows:

Add - Interceptions, Fumbles Lost, Sacks, Drops & Penalties. Then Divide by - TOTAL OFFENSIVE PLAYS. Albin says if the result is 12% or less = Win 88% of games.
They later shared that the total was 16% for the Buffalo game. I have not checked to see if this reigns true for this season, it would be interesting to see if it does though.

I will leave it up to you all to make your assumptions as to why they have moved to this model but it certainly explains the slow pace and their reluctance to speed things up even when they are struggling. Just wanted to throw this out there to see what you all think and to spread some awareness in case you missed it during the broadcast.


One little problem with the theory that this concept is limiting our offense is that I believe they’ve been using it prior to this year. I don’t think it’s a new discovery to them, but I may be wrong.
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Possible Answer to your Questions on Offensive Woes
   Posted: 11/21/2023 3:04:51 PM 
WE LOVE FOOTBALL wrote:
Not sure how this has not been brought up on this board yet with all the questions on the regression of the offense this year but the answer, I believe, was revealed during the broadcast for the Buffalo game. They shared that Albin has a "formula for winning" this formula is as follows:

Add - Interceptions, Fumbles Lost, Sacks, Drops & Penalties. Then Divide by - TOTAL OFFENSIVE PLAYS. Albin says if the result is 12% or less = Win 88% of games.
They later shared that the total was 16% for the Buffalo game. I have not checked to see if this reigns true for this season, it would be interesting to see if it does though.

I will leave it up to you all to make your assumptions as to why they have moved to this model but it certainly explains the slow pace and their reluctance to speed things up even when they are struggling. Just wanted to throw this out there to see what you all think and to spread some awareness in case you missed it during the broadcast.


Albin said that the number vs. ISU was 0%
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SBH
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  Message Not Read  RE: Possible Answer to your Questions on Offensive Woes
   Posted: 11/21/2023 3:40:32 PM 
Doc Bobcat wrote:
Welcome We Love.

Interesting info.

I just have ?s.

Who is calling the plays? Smith or Isphording?

Why inability to block when it’s the same O line as last year?

Why only one Ohio recruit this year?

When will The Smiling Skull get their liquor license back?




Albin called the plays in each of the past 2 games. Confirmed for me by an AD employee.
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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Possible Answer to your Questions on Offensive Woes
   Posted: 11/21/2023 4:19:27 PM 
Doc Bobcat wrote:
Welcome We Love.

Interesting info.

I just have ?s.

Who is calling the plays? Smith or Isphording?

Why inability to block when it’s the same O line as last year?

Why only one Ohio recruit this year?

When will The Smiling Skull get their liquor license back?




They got their liquor licenses back last week and had a big re-grand opening party.
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Doc Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Possible Answer to your Questions on Offensive Woes
   Posted: 11/21/2023 6:49:40 PM 
BillyTheCat wrote:
Doc Bobcat wrote:
Welcome We Love.

Interesting info.

I just have ?s.

Who is calling the plays? Smith or Isphording?

Why inability to block when it’s the same O line as last year?

Why only one Ohio recruit this year?

When will The Smiling Skull get their liquor license back?




They got their liquor licenses back last week and had a big re-grand opening party.


We walked in after the Fiami game…..no booze which we needed…next door was fun
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colobobcat66
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  Message Not Read  RE: Possible Answer to your Questions on Offensive Woes
   Posted: 11/21/2023 7:06:07 PM 
The lack of effective offense has been a mystery to me all year. Rourke looked pretty good during the first quarter of the SDSU game until he was hurt, and I haven’t really analyzed his stats much this year, but I suspect that he is not the same QB as last year. Not sure if some physical thing, but he’s just not as effective as last year. He basically has the same line and running backs, so that doesn’t explain the drop off in my opinion. It appears to me that we essentially lost our two deep threats - Bostic and Jones who were the top 2 MAC receivers among the top 50 as far as yards per catch. Without as much of a deep threat, I’m guessing the defense will play the run more and be able to more effectively stop the run. Don’t know if that’s true, but that’s my theory.

Has our play calling had an affect on the results? Maybe without the deep threats that we had last year, they’ve called it more conservative which I think we’re seeing. Afraid of Rourke getting hurt again- seems like a lot less option plays to me. I think that Albin taking over the play calling the last 2 weeks shows that he knows we’re not getting the job done. It’s a little too little, too late to change the results of a couple games we lost.

I also don’t think our special teams have helped us much this year with the field position battles, but I dont know how that has translated to offensive success.

Is the season a total failure- not as far as I’m concerned but for the “ only the MACC counts crowd”, probably so. Is it a huge disappointment - it is for me and I’ll keep scratching my head as to what went wrong with the offense. We can only speculate why that is.

Last Edited: 11/21/2023 7:17:08 PM by colobobcat66
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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Possible Answer to your Questions on Offensive Woes
   Posted: 11/21/2023 9:24:21 PM 
Doc Bobcat wrote:
BillyTheCat wrote:
Doc Bobcat wrote:
Welcome We Love.

Interesting info.

I just have ?s.

Who is calling the plays? Smith or Isphording?

Why inability to block when it’s the same O line as last year?

Why only one Ohio recruit this year?

When will The Smiling Skull get their liquor license back?




They got their liquor licenses back last week and had a big re-grand opening party.


We walked in after the Fiami game…..no booze which we needed…next door was fun


reopening was the 15th, so you were a little early, unlike their check to the state liquor board.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Possible Answer to your Questions on Offensive Woes
   Posted: 11/22/2023 10:24:45 AM 
SBH wrote:
Doc Bobcat wrote:
Welcome We Love.

Interesting info.

I just have ?s.

Who is calling the plays? Smith or Isphording?

Why inability to block when it’s the same O line as last year?

Why only one Ohio recruit this year?

When will The Smiling Skull get their liquor license back?




Albin called the plays in each of the past 2 games. Confirmed for me by an AD employee.

So, can we take this information to mean that Albin did not call the plays for NIU or Miami?

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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SBH
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  Message Not Read  RE: Possible Answer to your Questions on Offensive Woes
   Posted: 11/22/2023 11:20:01 AM 
Yep.
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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Possible Answer to your Questions on Offensive Woes
   Posted: 11/22/2023 12:45:17 PM 
colobobcat66 wrote:
The lack of effective offense has been a mystery to me all year. Rourke looked pretty good during the first quarter of the SDSU game until he was hurt, and I haven’t really analyzed his stats much this year, but I suspect that he is not the same QB as last year. Not sure if some physical thing, but he’s just not as effective as last year. He basically has the same line and running backs, so that doesn’t explain the drop off in my opinion. It appears to me that we essentially lost our two deep threats - Bostic and Jones who were the top 2 MAC receivers among the top 50 as far as yards per catch. Without as much of a deep threat, I’m guessing the defense will play the run more and be able to more effectively stop the run. Don’t know if that’s true, but that’s my theory.

Has our play calling had an affect on the results? Maybe without the deep threats that we had last year, they’ve called it more conservative which I think we’re seeing. Afraid of Rourke getting hurt again- seems like a lot less option plays to me. I think that Albin taking over the play calling the last 2 weeks shows that he knows we’re not getting the job done. It’s a little too little, too late to change the results of a couple games we lost.

I also don’t think our special teams have helped us much this year with the field position battles, but I dont know how that has translated to offensive success.

Is the season a total failure- not as far as I’m concerned but for the “ only the MACC counts crowd”, probably so. Is it a huge disappointment - it is for me and I’ll keep scratching my head as to what went wrong with the offense. We can only speculate why that is.


Good analysis. I think that the loss of Jones has hurt particularly, as he had a knack for getting open on crucial downs. The offense just seemed to have a better rhythm when he was on the field. Does anyone know if he’ll be back next year?

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Possible Answer to your Questions on Offensive Woes
   Posted: 11/22/2023 1:00:12 PM 
SBH wrote:
Yep.

Interesting. While Ohio won both games, the overall offensive performance was still weak. Rushing yards/carry, which has been low all season, was 3.7 yards/carry for the last two games, exactly the same at the average for other MAC games. I guess the problem isn't a question of who is calling the plays, but is related to execution.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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M.D.W.S.T
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  Message Not Read  RE: Possible Answer to your Questions on Offensive Woes
   Posted: 11/22/2023 1:16:06 PM 
WE LOVE FOOTBALL wrote:
Not sure how this has not been brought up on this board yet with all the questions on the regression of the offense this year but the answer, I believe, was revealed during the broadcast for the Buffalo game. They shared that Albin has a "formula for winning" this formula is as follows:

Add - Interceptions, Fumbles Lost, Sacks, Drops & Penalties. Then Divide by - TOTAL OFFENSIVE PLAYS. Albin says if the result is 12% or less = Win 88% of games.
They later shared that the total was 16% for the Buffalo game. I have not checked to see if this reigns true for this season, it would be interesting to see if it does though.

I will leave it up to you all to make your assumptions as to why they have moved to this model but it certainly explains the slow pace and their reluctance to speed things up even when they are struggling. Just wanted to throw this out there to see what you all think and to spread some awareness in case you missed it during the broadcast.


This sounds like a strategy an offensive coordinator that was about to be fired came up with.

"Noooo you dont understand! Having the ball less... means we win... MORE!"

But good lord - whoever came up with a formula that running LESS PlAYS is the key to victory has to be fired immediately.

Correlation doesn't equal causation.

Of course limiting turnovers leads to victory more often than not, but running... fewer plays... YUCK. Maybe if this meant we were throwing 40 yard bombs all day and scoring at will. Alas, we're running 3 dives into the pile and punting, thinking its sound strategy.

I bet if you put every team in a database from this year - the team that had the ball the most time won the game 90 times out of 100.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Possible Answer to your Questions on Offensive Woes
   Posted: 11/23/2023 11:40:43 PM 
M.D.W.S.T wrote:
WE LOVE FOOTBALL wrote:
Not sure how this has not been brought up on this board yet with all the questions on the regression of the offense this year but the answer, I believe, was revealed during the broadcast for the Buffalo game. They shared that Albin has a "formula for winning" this formula is as follows:

Add - Interceptions, Fumbles Lost, Sacks, Drops & Penalties. Then Divide by - TOTAL OFFENSIVE PLAYS. Albin says if the result is 12% or less = Win 88% of games....

....
But good lord - whoever came up with a formula that running LESS PlAYS is the key to victory has to be fired immediately.
...

You might want to look at that formula again. Running more plays lowers the score (so long as you don't commit more turnovers, etc in the process).

As an example, suppose you have a fumble, 2 sacks, a drop, and two penalties. That is six bad plays. If you ran 30 plays, 6/30 is 20%, but if you ran 60 plays, 6/60 is 10%. Running plays without screwing them up lowers the score, but running less plays raises it.

Really, the formula is pretty simple and straightforward. Think of the interceptions, fumbles, sacks, drops, and penalties as preventable errors. If you make a preventable error more often than once every 8 plays, it gets hard to win. I think every football coach ever has tried to get his players to keep their heads in the game, and get them to make less errors. All this formula does is to quantify and track progress at eliminating errors. It has everything to do with running plays more carefully, but nothing to do with running less plays, at least, not beyond the idea that if you rush too much you are more apt to make an error.

Last Edited: 11/24/2023 9:10:02 AM by L.C.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Possible Answer to your Questions on Offensive Woes
   Posted: 11/24/2023 9:18:54 AM 
L.C. wrote:
M.D.W.S.T wrote:
WE LOVE FOOTBALL wrote:
Not sure how this has not been brought up on this board yet with all the questions on the regression of the offense this year but the answer, I believe, was revealed during the broadcast for the Buffalo game. They shared that Albin has a "formula for winning" this formula is as follows:

Add - Interceptions, Fumbles Lost, Sacks, Drops & Penalties. Then Divide by - TOTAL OFFENSIVE PLAYS. Albin says if the result is 12% or less = Win 88% of games....

....
But good lord - whoever came up with a formula that running LESS PlAYS is the key to victory has to be fired immediately.
...

You might want to look at that formula again. Running more plays lowers the score (so long as you don't commit more turnovers, etc in the process).

As an example, suppose you have a fumble, 2 sacks, a drop, and two penalties. That is six bad plays. If you ran 30 plays, 6/30 is 20%, but if you ran 60 plays, 6/60 is 10%. Running plays without screwing them up lowers the score, but running less plays raises it.

Really, the formula is pretty simple and straightforward. Think of the interceptions, fumbles, sacks, drops, and penalties as preventable errors. If you make a preventable error more often than once every 8 plays, it gets hard to win. I think every football coach ever has tried to get his players to keep their heads in the game, and get them to make less errors. All this formula does is to quantify and track progress at eliminating errors. It has everything to do with running plays more carefully, but nothing to do with running less plays, at least, not beyond the idea that if you rush too much you are more apt to make an error.


funny, people want to dispute math. Every sport has metrics that are statistically significant. That is a solid formula, always has been!
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Ohio69
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  Message Not Read  RE: Possible Answer to your Questions on Offensive Woes
   Posted: 11/24/2023 3:42:32 PM 

This formula is no fun to watch.

And, this is all supposed to be fun.

And I get the feeling sometimes that the skill players aren’t that excited with the gameplan.

9-3 though. Another very good season by the coaching staff.

Can somebody hit a pull up jumper for me?.....

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Possible Answer to your Questions on Offensive Woes
   Posted: 11/24/2023 4:18:04 PM 
The formula is just another way of saying
formula wrote:
"The following things are all bad. Avoid these errors:
fumble
interception
sack
dropped passe
penalty

I sit here confused. Has any coach, ever, not wanted to reduce every one of these? Do people really want more fumbles and interceptions? More sacks against us? More dropped passes? More penalties?

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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BryanHall
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  Message Not Read  RE: Possible Answer to your Questions on Offensive Woes
   Posted: 11/26/2023 3:45:58 PM 
L.C. wrote:
The formula is just another way of saying
formula wrote:
"The following things are all bad. Avoid these errors:
fumble
interception
sack
dropped passe
penalty

I sit here confused. Has any coach, ever, not wanted to reduce every one of these? Do people really want more fumbles and interceptions? More sacks against us? More dropped passes? More penalties?


You make a good point. However, the original poster is getting at the fact that the team is so focused on not taking risks that it appears to hurt the offense.
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