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Topic: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Topic: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

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GoCats105
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OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/4/2023 4:04:35 PM

With yesterday's rankings reveal, I'm not sure how anyone can look at what the 12-team playoff brings and think the MAC or Ohio should feel good about where FBS level football is headed. Florida State's snub is just a precursor to how stupid - and frankly, boring, this process is going to be from here on out.

1. When the PAC-12 died, the College Football Playoff Committee came out and said they were in discussions on changing the number of automatic bids they were going to provide. Originally and currently, the auto bid number is six. Six spots for the best six conferences - assuming there were still five Power 5 leagues plus the highest ranked Group of Five. If you thought they would "rank" a second Group of Five league ahead of a Power Five, I've got some ocean front property in Athens I'd like to sell you.

Conference commissioners, led by the SEC's Greg Sankey, have stated they think the new number of auto bids could be reduced to five. And why not? One less Power conference means one less bid, right? Because heaven forbid a 2nd Group of Five conference get a slice of the pie. So let's say it reduces to five auto bids. That puts the math at 4+1, with again one measly auto bid to the Group of Five. And I'm not even sure they'd still guarantee a spot for the Group of Five.

2. The 12 team playoff was not designed for the MAC, AAC, Mountain West, SBC or C-USA. It was designed so the Big Ten could say "Hey Ohio State only lost once and Penn State only lost twice, they still deserve a shot!" Or Ole Miss could claim they were one of the best teams in the SEC, even though they proved they weren't playoff worthy by losing to Alabama and Georgia in the regular season, by getting a playoff bid.

Let's say this 12 team format last 10 years. I'm going to put a guess out there that only 1/10 times will we see more than one Group of Five champion in the playoffs. You can bookmark this post if you want to, I don't care.

3. Are you super jazzed about playing in a 12-team playoff just to go on the road - first round sites are at home stadiums - to serve as a sacrificial lamb to the powers conferences? I'm sure not. I guess the theory could be that just making the playoffs is enough, sort of like making the NCAA Tournament in basketball. But the idea of a Cinderella story taking place in an FBS football playoff compared to what we routinely see in NCAA basketball? I'm sorry it just doesn't compute. Cincinnati a couple years ago maybe or a Boise State team from the late aughts and early 10s, but I've never seen a MAC team at that level.

4. Scenario: A 10-2 SEC or Big Ten team that lost to the two best teams in the league, maybe even the country. Line that team up against a team from another conference, maybe an 11-1 Big 12 team or a second 12-1 Group of Five who's only loss is a close game to a power conference team. Who do you think is getting in? I sure know who I think they'll pick.

They've set the precedent this year leaving an undefeated Florida State out of a 4 team playoff. By the CFP Committee's logic that FSU is a worse team without Jordan Travis, they shouldn't even have been ranked 5th. Their true ranking was more like 7th. But if you're in the SEC or Big Ten, you're solid gold.

There's a reason the ACC presidents, commissioners and ADs all agreed they didn't want to expand the playoff just yet. Because they know: unless they have at least two, maybe even three teams with 11 or more wins, that they have a very slim chance of getting multiple teams in the future playoff. Why do you think they reached for expansion and added Cal and Stanford? Are those programs going to help them get more bids? Doubtful, but maybe they help boost someone else's record. Plus, more teams in your league, the greater the chances you get more teams in, I guess?

The Big Two (B1G and SEC) vs. the Little Seven. That's how it's gonna look from here on out. FWIW, 10/12 teams in this year's rankings would have been future Big Ten or SEC teams.

spongeBOB CATpants
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/4/2023 4:15:21 PM

Correct. I want a G5 playoff. The 12 team P5 format is going to suck. Is there even a need to have P5 conferences now?

I think a G5 playoff would be wildly popular. Maybe I'm way off but with legalized sports betting, the interest would be there.

M.D.W.S.T
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/4/2023 4:28:33 PM

spongeBOB CATpants wrote:

P5 should and probably will move to an 8 team playoff soon, maybe even a 12. At that point, I think they should make it a 14.

10 conference champions - and then your 4 at large.

Top 2-4 seeds get a BYE.

Top teams will play an additional 3 games en-route to the Title, rather than 2.

Each game can still be the whatever dot com phoenix bowl, but if you win you move on.

Or schedule 1 less non-con game and make it a straight up 14 team single-elimination tournament.

Just like in basketball most years Texas is going to wallop Liberty, but that one year they dont and spark a little run...?

GoCats105
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/4/2023 4:36:51 PM

M.D.W.S.T wrote:

spongeBOB CATpants wrote:

P5 should and probably will move to an 8 team playoff soon, maybe even a 12. At that point, I think they should make it a 14.

10 conference champions - and then your 4 at large.

It's literally moving to 12 next year. And there are only 9 conferences now.

LuckySparrow
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/4/2023 4:48:35 PM

Group of Five should certainly hold a playoff.

But first, please come up with a better identifier than "Group of Five."

There is no use in fantasizing about crashing the Power 5 playoff. The cat is out of the bag and the decks are stacked in favor of the big teams.

I think there is an appetite for something real in CFB. Group of Five should be leaning into rivalries, post season games on campus, etc.

What a day at the Convo.....Wow!

M.D.W.S.T
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/4/2023 5:05:18 PM

LuckySparrow wrote:

Am I confusing myself or dare I say that if OU and Toledo were both ranked in the MACC - and OU or Toledo won... they would be facing Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl?

That's how that works or no? Highest ranked G5?

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/4/2023 5:40:17 PM

The college football playoff has no interest in creating a path for the most deserving teams. They have interest in creating a path to get the teams that will generate the most interest in the college football playoff. MAC schools don't fit the bill.

The G5 is a different tier and should have their own championship. There's nothing interesting about playing for the Myrtle Beach Bowl.

GoCats105
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/4/2023 5:48:29 PM

M.D.W.S.T wrote:

LuckySparrow wrote:

That is how it works but what makes you think they'd be the highest ranked G5?

Out of the 10 seasons of the 4 team CFP era, the MAC got to a New Year's bowl exactly once.

2014: Boise State
2015: Houston
2016: Western Michigan
2017: UCF
2018: UCF
2019: Memphis
2020: Cincinnati
2021: Cincinnati
2022: Tulane
2023: Liberty

LuckySparrow
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/4/2023 7:44:29 PM

Also, how long until they change the rules to exclude the G5 teams?

I seem to remember some meltdowns in Bristol when NIU made the Orange Bowl.

What a day at the Convo.....Wow!

BillyTheCat
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/4/2023 9:06:48 PM

Do any of you really believe that the MAC is on par with Georgia this year? OSU? or any other of those schools that just got left out? Where is it written that a conference champion makes them better than a 3rd place team of another team.

GoCats105
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/4/2023 9:52:10 PM

Nobody is saying that, but thanks for making the point even more clear on why the MAC shouldn't even be a part of this system.

Last Edited: 12/4/2023 9:55:51 PM by GoCats105

gedunkman
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/4/2023 10:36:08 PM

GoCats105 wrote:

M.D.W.S.T wrote:

LuckySparrow wrote:

Well, one year before your cutoff, 2013, NIU played FSU in the Orange Bowl. I remember because I was stationed in Florida at the time and drove a few hours to attended the game.

TheBobcatBandit
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/4/2023 11:45:11 PM

spongeBOB CATpants wrote:

I don�t want a G5 playoff. I think the 12 team playoff is going to be awesome. Never before would the Mac or any G5 conference have a chance to make the playoff and compete. Now we do. If the top 5 G5 team goes in every year and gets destroyed maybe would think different but need to watch to see what happens. Just last year Tulane upset USC has happened before too. Don�t think it�s some for gone conclusion that the G5 will get destroyed every year.

TheBobcatBandit
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/4/2023 11:55:58 PM

LuckySparrow wrote:

Also, how long until they change the rules to exclude the G5 teams?

I seem to remember some meltdowns in Bristol when NIU made the Orange Bowl.

Think these early years will be important to keeping a G5 slot. Could easily see after a year or two in them taking away the G5 slot if the teams get blown out. Which if happens will likely never get a team in again and I would probably be more open to a G5 playoff. Hopefully a good G5 team steps up next year and does a good job. I think it really varies year to year how competitive the G5 will be. Some years you have great G5 teams that do go toe to toe with the best. Think about Utah beating Alabama in the early 2000�s and the Boise teams. Probably some others too who deserve to be there and show it. Then you have others who aren�t on that level and get destroyed.

Found a nice link https://downtownhuntington.net/ranking-best-undefeated-g5... /

Could any of these teams pull off the upset if were playing next year?

Last Edited: 12/4/2023 11:58:58 PM by TheBobcatBandit

spongeBOB CATpants
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/5/2023 9:51:06 AM

LuckySparrow wrote:

Also, how long until they change the rules to exclude the G5 teams?

I seem to remember some meltdowns in Bristol when NIU made the Orange Bowl.

Exactly. It won't take long for the powers at be to realize that sticking the top G5 team in as the 12 seed won't get nearly the viewers that a slightly above average from a P5 conference would bring in.

If the 12 team format was this year, we'd have Liberty in as the 12 seed. They could put literally any of the following at 12 instead:

Oklahoma, LSU, Arizona, Louisville, Notre Dame, Iowa (maybe the one school I'd take Liberty over), NC State, Oregon State, Oklahoma State, Tennessee, or Clemson.

I really don't see the G5 rule sticking for more than a couple years, especially if they get blown out.

Last Edited: 12/5/2023 9:52:30 AM by spongeBOB CATpants

Alan Swank
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/5/2023 10:02:22 AM

So if they take away the 12th slot, why are the other 65 or so schools even playing in Division 1 college football. Seriously, can you think of a situation where you play in a sport where even with a miracle season, you have no chance of making the championship tournament. It defies logic and readily admits that the you are in second tier situation.

M.D.W.S.T
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/5/2023 10:30:47 AM

GoCats105 wrote:

M.D.W.S.T wrote:

LuckySparrow wrote:

Because Liberty, at #18 is the highest rated G5.

It's not like MAC teams are always sitting there ranked and ready to go and got passed over a bunch of other times.

If a #23 Toledo and a ranked OU team played... not out of the realm they'd jump over Liberty. Maybe the voters look at the two teams and decide Liberty is 1 spot higher, but we're not talking about Mt Everest here.

GoCats105
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/5/2023 11:00:16 AM

Alan Swank wrote:

This is an excellent question. You could argue that the Indianas, Rutgers and Vanderbilts of the world also have no shot given their football history, budgets, recruiting acumen, program interest and general "want" to be at that higher level. But at least they have a clearer path of getting there. They've already got a spot on the boat. What I'm more interested in is the next round of realignment if they start voting schools like that out.

GoCats105
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/5/2023 11:11:34 AM

BTC bumped an older thread on this topic and now I'm curious. There were a lot of posts back then - almost 10 years ago - that stated their fandom for Ohio football would be lower if Ohio/MAC football was relegated to a lower division.

Can I ask why? I'm genuinely curious. I understand you wouldn't be considered on the same level as an OSU or Michigan, but isn't that already true? Is it the glimmer of hope that maybe some day with an undefeated dream season that Ohio would be among those playing in a New Year's bowl? Doesn't that more or less get diminished when you're not playing for a national championship? And even with the 12 team format there is no guarantee you'd be the highest ranked.

If Ohio actually had a national championship to play for if it was relegated to a lower division, why is that less appealing? I've seen some FCS playoff games with incredible atmospheres and games that are just as exciting as any Tuesday MACtion. It's not like the brand of football would be changing by much, IMO. There were some years where an Ohio team may have gotten beat by an FCS champ like App State or NDSU.

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/5/2023 11:37:01 AM

Alan Swank wrote:

This is how college football has worked for decades now.

LuckySparrow
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/5/2023 11:53:21 AM

Not to be too pessimistic, but I suspect if a G5 team made noise and won playoff games we would see cries for change. "It's too random! We want the best teams! This isn't college basketball!"

What a day at the Convo.....Wow!

M.D.W.S.T
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/5/2023 11:53:54 AM

GoCats105 wrote:

I think the reasons are obvious.

There is more to being an FBS football school than just the brand of football being played on the field.

And comparing a playoff atmosphere to Tuesday night MACtion is not one I'd put on the top of the list of pros.

In addition, just dropping a division doesn't save you money. You have the same problems, only a lot less money and a lot less appeal.

Alan Swank
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/5/2023 12:30:02 PM

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:

Alan Swank wrote:

This is how college football has worked for decades now.

Agreed and understood and a few of us have been calling for another division for years. These latest developments and if the 12th guaranteed spot is taken away, then it becomes codified.

Buckeye to Bobcat
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/5/2023 12:49:04 PM

At this point, I am open to merging G5 with FCS in regards to how they do playoffs and everything. Would make for more fun in those regards. I mean based on how they made the new NIT rules, it's only a matter of time before they scratch the G5 guaranteed entry into the playoffs (and I will see pigs fly before two G5 teams make the P5 playoffs in the same season in my lifetime)

Last Edited: 12/5/2023 12:49:20 PM by Buckeye to Bobcat

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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RE: OT: The Future of the College Football Playoff

Posted: 12/5/2023 2:12:09 PM

New division on its way: https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/39047353/n...

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