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Topic: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Topic: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

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Ted Thompson
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Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/16/2024 12:42:22 PM

Use this thread to talk about anything game-related. For away games, we may have a separate travel thread.

Date: Thursday November 21st, 2024 12:00 PM

Opponent: Middle Tennessee St. (3-1)

Site: HTC Center

TV/Streaming: ESPNU

Radio: Ohio Radio, The Varsity Network App (free)

MTSU statistics, roster and media guide

MTSU message board: GoMiddle.com

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GraffZ06
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/16/2024 1:51:09 PM

Torvik has us winning 75-74 with 54% chance of a W.

The fact this is a toss up is sad. This MUST be a W, to both stop the bleeding and get us some momentum, but also if we're going to be halfway as good as we thought.

Repeat after me: Defense, rebounding, free throws. Defense, rebounding, free throws.

OUbobcat9092
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/16/2024 7:04:31 PM

MTSU is 3-1 now.
Lost by 21 to Murray State today.

Bring Back Men's Track & Field

FearLeon
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/17/2024 1:35:24 PM

OUbobcat9092 wrote:

MTSU is 3-1 now.
Lost by 21 to Murray State today.

MTSU shot 4-23 from 3 against Murray State.

This means they will go 17-23 from 3 against Ohio on Thursday.

Last Edited: 11/17/2024 1:35:50 PM by FearLeon

#BleedGreen #TrentIsGOAT

GraffZ06
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/17/2024 2:34:38 PM

Per Torvik our stats.

Tempo Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 109.5 (88th in country)
Tempo Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 107.5 (242nd in country)

Raw Effective FG% Offense: 52.6 (128th in country)
Raw Effective FG% Defense: 62.8 (358th in country)

And we already know we're dead last in 3pt% defense.

So - you tell me what we need to improve to get better?

Based on individual box plus-minus (small sample size alert due to this generally being a very noisy stat)

Defensive Box Plus-Minus
1. Shereef Mitchell (+1.3)
2. Aidan Hadaway (+0.5)
3. AJ Clayton (-0.2)
4. Vic Searls (-1.3)
5. Ajay Sheldon (-2.1)
6. AJ Brown (-2.6)
7. Elmore James (-3.5)
8. Elijah Elliott (-4.6)
9. Ayden Evans (-4.8)
10. Jackson Paveletzke (-4.8)

Last year for comparison
1. Miles Brown (+0.7)
2. AJ Clayton (+0.6)
3. Jaylin Hunter (+0.6)
4. Shereef Mitchell (+0.6)
5. Gabe Wiznitzer (+0.1)
6. Ajay Sheldon (0.0)
7. Aidan Hadaway (0.0)
8. AJ Brown (-1.4)
9. Elmore James (-1.8)
10. Ike Cornish (-2.4)
11. Ben Estis (-6.1)
12. Quinn Corna (-8.1)

I'd say we're SEVERELY missing Miles Brown's defense more than anything right now, and Paveletzke (so far) isn't it.

Last Edited: 11/17/2024 2:36:30 PM by GraffZ06

bobcatsquared
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/17/2024 3:17:20 PM

Opposing guards love backing down JP. I don't see this easing up until JP and/or Boals figure this out.

Andrew Ruck
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/17/2024 8:16:47 PM

GraffZ06 wrote:

Based on individual box plus-minus (small sample size alert due to this generally being a very noisy stat)

Defensive Box Plus-Minus
1. Shereef Mitchell (+1.3)
2. Aidan Hadaway (+0.5)
3. AJ Clayton (-0.2)
4. Vic Searls (-1.3)
5. Ajay Sheldon (-2.1)
6. AJ Brown (-2.6)
7. Elmore James (-3.5)
8. Elijah Elliott (-4.6)
9. Ayden Evans (-4.8)
10. Jackson Paveletzke (-4.8)

This passes the sniff test for me. JP, EJ & AJB all have been beaten consistently on defense. Our top 3 guards in minutes thus far, so the 3 point barrage makes sense.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

M.D.W.S.T
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/18/2024 10:42:03 AM

Andrew Ruck wrote:

GraffZ06 wrote:

This passes the sniff test for me. JP, EJ & AJB all have been beaten consistently on defense. Our top 3 guards in minutes thus far, so the 3 point barrage makes sense.

Need to attempt a "big" line-up to try to take away some of the open shots. Can't take Reef out, but shift AJB down to 2, Aiden down to 3, AJC to 4 and Ayden to 5. Strech out and take away some of the 3's, cause a little havoc on D.

I'm sure Boals has considered it - and not done it - for a reason, but we look so slow and unathletic, when I don't think we're unathletic at all. I said it last season and before this season, but we should be 'trying' to put up 100 a game. Run. Run. Run. Theres no reason we shouldn't be the most conditioned team on the floor. Too small to play so slow and clunky.

FJC31
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/18/2024 7:21:56 PM

This is a much different MTSU team than the one we faced a year ago in Nassau.

Essam Moustafa should ring a bell, the Coastal Carolina big we tried for 2 portal seasons ago has landed at MTSU after a year at TCU. Averaging 12ppg and 8rpg.

Kamari Lands is a 6�8 ASU/Louisville transfer averaging 11ppg game. I�m sure they�ll pound the ball inside.

Last year�s leading scorer Jestin Porter also returns.

I�m with MDWST. I�d try a bigger lineup to shake things up and rip the bandaid off Evans or run more than we have been this season if we�re playing small.

JSF
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/18/2024 7:56:41 PM

M.D.W.S.T wrote:

I'm sure Boals has considered it - and not done it - for a reason, but we look so slow and unathletic, when I don't think we're unathletic at all. I said it last season and before this season, but we should be 'trying' to put up 100 a game. Run. Run. Run. Theres no reason we shouldn't be the most conditioned team on the floor. Too small to play so slow and clunky.

We're right in the middle of Kenpom's adjusted tempo, so we're not Charlie Coles-ing it out there. But the days of being able to run teams out of the gym are over. Look at top teams; they're more likely to play a slower pace than a faster one. And the last thing a bad defensive team wants to do is increase possessions.

"Loyalty to a hometown or city is fleeting and interchangeable, but college is a stamp of identity."- Kyle Whelliston, One Beautiful Season.

My blog about depression and mental illness: https://bit.ly/3buGXH8

GraffZ06
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/18/2024 8:41:43 PM

JSF wrote:

And the last thing a bad defensive team wants to do is increase possessions.

Bingo. Unless/until we figure out our defensive woes we need to play slower not faster. Limit possessions.

Victory
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/19/2024 8:06:19 AM

GraffZ06 wrote:

JSF wrote:

And the last thing a bad defensive team wants to do is increase possessions.

Bingo. Unless/until we figure out our defensive woes we need to play slower not faster. Limit possessions.

I have never understood how playing slower is supposed to help this. If we play slow it keeps the other teams score down but, all other things being equal, it keeps our score down exactly as much. If we are better at full court press than we are half court defense then there is reason to think it might help. I have no Idea if that's the case but the whole we give up a lot of points and playing faster would make that worse doesn't hold up. It is points per possession that matters here and not points because both teams get approximately the same number of possessions.

It's like high powered football passing attacks back in the '80s. How can you slow them down? Run the ball. Eat click when you are on offense. So maybe this strategy help against every type of offense if it keeps your defense rested or anything like that but as a means to win by keeping the other teams score down, after a decade or so, it was clear this was nonsense. You still have to keep the other team from scoring when they do have the ball equally as much no matter if your offense eats clock or not

Last Edited: 11/19/2024 8:16:10 AM by Victory

Buckeye to Bobcat
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/19/2024 10:22:19 AM

Who's all going for the Thursday games?

shabamon
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/19/2024 10:30:27 AM

Victory wrote:

GraffZ06 wrote:

JSF wrote:

And the last thing a bad defensive team wants to do is increase possessions.

Bingo. Unless/until we figure out our defensive woes we need to play slower not faster. Limit possessions.

It's game theory. If a possession in basketball is an instance of the game, fewer games is more favorable to a weaker team than more games. Every once in a while you hear of a weaker team in high school play keep away until the final minutes. This essentially ensures the score is in arm's reach and the weaker team only has to win a small number of possessions to win the greater game.

This is why massive upsets are commonplace in single elimination tournaments. If March Madness were best of seven series like the NBA playoffs, FDU is never advancing past Purdue. If FDU and Purdue play 100 times, FDU will win a few, but Purdue will win the vast majority. It is statistically more likely to pick a random game from that 100 and FDU is the winner than it is to pick a random seven games and FDU is the winner of at least four.

Victory
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/19/2024 11:28:01 AM

shabamon wrote:

Victory wrote:

GraffZ06 wrote:

JSF wrote:

And the last thing a bad defensive team wants to do is increase possessions.

Bingo. Unless/until we figure out our defensive woes we need to play slower not faster. Limit possessions.

Oh, yeah, I get that. Are we operating under the assumption that we are going to be the clearly inferior team in most of our remaining games? If so, then yes, I get that. But that's a completely different issue than trying to figure out how to fix perimeter defense or are we actually a better team in knowing how to win a low or high scoring affair. If we are already operating under that assumption after 3 games then that is unbelievably disappointing for a team that was picked nearly unanimously first in the MAC.

Yes, that changes the question. Instead of saying how to we universally lower the average amount of points we surrender per opponent possession we are changing it to how do we increase the standard deviation from night to night centered around that average. We accept that we will lose most of the time with our typical average but if we limit the number of possesions then some nights it is more likely that average will randomly be much higher than normal and on some nights it will be much lower than normal. Then on those flukishly low nights we give ourselves a better chance accepting that we will lose on the flukishly high nights. Yes, that logic holds. Absolutely, it holds. But if thats where we are, finding a way to occasionally win as an inferior team then we are in most disappointing seasons of all-time territory. This methodology isn't about becoming a better team but about making fluky outcomes where the inferior team wins slightly more often while accepting you will lose most games and are the inferior team most of the time.

Last Edited: 11/19/2024 11:40:04 AM by Victory

FJC31
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/20/2024 9:30:53 AM

Interesting stats � AJC is tied 14th in the national in total blocks with 11. He had 8 through all of November a season ago.

He has had a much more balanced offensive approach shot wise so far; with 23 3PA and 17 2PA. The issue is he�s only hit 6 of his 3PA�s. He continues to be efficient inside the arc at 59% so far and 8/9 at the foul line. I do hope he takes more 2PA�s as the season goes on in comparison to 3PA�s, so his value is less dependent on the latter.

Pav - 13 assists to 13 turnovers. He�s also only taken 4 3PA�s (1 more than Searls, less than Hadaway) through 4 games, while hitting 2. Meanwhile, he leads us in offensive rebounds with 8.

In his lone season at Wofford; he had 11 3PA�s and hit 6 of them through his first 4 games. He only had 5 turnovers through those first games as well, while averaging 15ppg.

His start to the season seems so wonky. I wonder if he�s pressing too much being new or trying to be more of a facilitator on the fly. Since he has 3x many turnovers as 3PA�s when the latter has historically been strength for him statistically speaking.

bobcatsquared
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/20/2024 9:51:33 AM

Not yet sure what we're going to get from Pav, but I remain optimistic. I'll say this about his turnovers: there was a stretch in the Memphis game where Ohio had 4 straight turnovers in a span of 1 minute and two of those 4 were credited to Pav. However, the 2 turnovers credited to Pav were passes he made that should have been handled by his teammates.

While we're on the topic of official scoring and Pav: there was a play in OUr lone home game where Ohio was on defense and Pav slapped a loose ball toward Ohio's end of the floor where a running EJ corralled it for an uncontested layup. The center scoreboard gave EJ credit for the 2 points but not Pav for the assist.

shabamon
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/20/2024 10:33:35 AM

bobcatsquared wrote:

^Officially this was credited as a defensive rebound for EJ.

bobcatsquared
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/20/2024 10:46:22 AM

Maybe too late to change this (and maybe the official scorer sees it differently), but I believe Pav saw EJ taking off toward our basket and deliberately batted the loose ball down to our frontcourt toward EJ, resulting in an uncontested layup.

I know, in the grand scheme of things, there are 1.5 billion people in China who couldn't care less (to paraphrase Reggie Jackson after he hit 3 HRs in one 1977 World Series game).

Last Edited: 11/20/2024 10:49:25 AM by bobcatsquared

cc-cat
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/20/2024 1:25:24 PM

Buckeye to Bobcat wrote:

Who's all going for the Thursday games?

indeed - heading in from Charlotte in the am

Last Edited: 11/20/2024 1:25:54 PM by cc-cat

ohiocatfan1
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/20/2024 2:20:25 PM

Hope to be proven wrong but I'm not overly optimistic at this point of early season. I have no faith in winning any game away from home and actually haven't for the past couple seasons. Defense is absolutely abysmal right now.

GraffZ06
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/20/2024 3:03:32 PM

Not that it will matter in the end but it'd be really nice to get the W against MTSU bc then we're likely facing two out of #96 Bradley, #111 Princeton and #115 USF.

71 BOBCAT
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/20/2024 3:08:38 PM

cc-cat I too was considering attending until I saw the pricing of $160 for all games. I thought that was over the top. It will be tv or radio for me

GO BOBCATS

cc-cat
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/20/2024 4:43:15 PM

71 BOBCAT wrote:

cc-cat I too was considering attending until I saw the pricing of $160 for all games. I thought that was over the top. It will be tv or radio for me

GO BOBCATS

Agree - I'm not staying for the Sunday game, so bought the thu/fri sessions at $50 per - steep as well. but Cats are rarely south. And gives me a chance to stay in "Dirty Myrtle" for a single night

BillyTheCat
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/20/2024 4:44:23 PM

Victory wrote:

GraffZ06 wrote:

JSF wrote:

And the last thing a bad defensive team wants to do is increase possessions.

Bingo. Unless/until we figure out our defensive woes we need to play slower not faster. Limit possessions.

Not sure the strategy of increasing the number of possessions is good for our defense.

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